CBMotivation
Short

AUD / CAD - Sell the commodity pair - SHORT to 500 pips

OANDA:AUDCAD   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
The Aussie is heavily influenced by China economics and it's use of 'hard' commodities like Iron Ore, Copper , Nickel, Coal and of course Crude Oil and GOLD , and the Canadian Dollar is heavily influenced by the price of Crude Oil and we know the state of these commodities and precious metals right now, yes heavily BEARISH!

But doesn't that mean this pair rise and fall together, ultimately yes, and since 2009 they have rotated nicely down a rather large descending on the channel which can be seen on the monthly time frame below. What this shows us is that the pair rotated to the North side of the channel with a retest of the channel producing a huge weekly pin bar in March 2018 and we've been falling ever since, albeit along the rising trend line until April, when we broke through that longterm bullish trend and confirmed our move to the downside is in play, and it did it, with a nice fat pin bar again, perfect sell signal, AGAIN!

This idea is based on the daily chart , again showing a pin bar , but since the RSI is a little oversold, wait for a 50% pullback or a sell signal on the 1h time frame, if you don't how to enter, see my link on entries below.

We have our first target @0.965 near the channel center line and at previous support, and the second is after taking profits and letting the trade ride down to the southern edge of the secondary channel.

What are your thoughts?

Patience pays, happy hunting!




Comment: Monthly long term descending channel showing secondary and major channels, T1 & T2. Notice we at the major point of control, a break below this level will mean a more rapid move to the downside.

Comment: Better view of the longterm channel and the important confluence levels

Trade active: 17/06/2018 @0.982 Limit order filled
Comment: Look at how they both rotate together and the Aussie is the weaker pair, but only because CAD makes bigger moves, Crude oil impact. Forms these lovely pin bars to sell off.

Comment: Breaking down nicely into profit, Asian session will be interesting

Comment: Beautiful move to the downside, 85 pips in profit so far

Comment: Lovely move down bouncing off that trend line on my RSI chart, we're in the red
Comment:
Comment: Added to my position on the lunchtime pullback, looking good for a further move down this afternoon or tomorrow.

Comment: Nice pullback today, looking for it to move up to the moving average and reject it, if all the signals are correct, i will then add another short

Comment: Pretty important to look at the weekly chart to see where this pair is right now in relation to the global outlook. Both are impacted by the lower Oil & gold price, the Aussie is mostly impacted by the Copper, Coal, Nickel and Iron Ore pricing and their susceptibility to a trade war with China, but I can't see how they wouldn't benefit as a tariff would increase prices on commodities, although reduce the volume purchased.

For the last few years, the Point of Control has existed within this channel, we've rotated sideways (slightly declining ) for nearly three years, this week there are very little reports that impact the pair (except Crude), so now it's bounced off 0.97395 there is a high probability of moving up towards 0.99, the previous move higher and the minor channel, if it breaks that level, it's a bullish move, otherwise, I remain Bearish overall.

Comment: Ascending wedge, bearish pattern

Comment: Took 200 pips of profit on this trade, there is 10% remaining

Comment: 325 pips in profit, lovely trade so far, even if it has taken 6 WEEKS to get down here!

Trade closed: target reached: Now that was a beauty of a trade....
@CBMotivation a long shadow pin bar on the daily. still the same view? on 1 hr looks like its reversing off the 200 ema.
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CBMotivation formobilogmay
@formobilogmay, very likely
Reply
looking to short from 0.98440
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@Buckz, it could easily go there...
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