Nico.Muselle
Short

AUDCAD - short at historical structure

FX:AUDCAD   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
1397 16 25
9 months ago
Trading is all about finding probabilities that give you an edge. A historical support/resistance level is such an edge. If you take a look on the daily chart you will see that the current level has been serving both as support and resistance for numerous times in the past.

snapshot

Don't you think it's likely that we'll see a reversal here (even if temporary) that we can take advantage of ? This price level, if we stay below, bears will try to repeat the sell opportunity that was successful the previous time, and the ones that were not on board for the previous short will like to try their chances now.

On top of the S/R level, we are at the 0.618 fibonacci retracement of the previous move down and we can see bullish divergence on the RSI .
Personally I will look for an additional confirmation like a reversal candle or a double top, which even raises the chances of being right.

What do YOU think ?

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9 months ago
Trade active: Shorted 0.9840
9 months ago
Trade closed: stop reached: Good analysis, followed the plan, but did not work out.
Just one of those losing trades, which is part of trading.
StarProsper
9 months ago
Also short as well, let's see how we go
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD StarProsper
9 months ago
Yep, I entered 0.9840 as well ... fingers crossed :)
Reply
forexmech
9 months ago
Short on this one. Thanks for excellent confirmation
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD forexmech
9 months ago
Welcome ! Make sure to follow so you receive updates and new ideas ! :)
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pawit11
9 months ago
Hi Nico i'm curious as to why you've shorted now whilst waiting for confirmation of a reversal candle
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD pawit11
9 months ago
I just set a limit order as I was not sure I would be available to monitor price action and enter the trade manually.
Reply
pawit11 Nico.Muselle
9 months ago
Thank you learning a lot from your post
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD pawit11
9 months ago
You're welcome, I'm glad it is helpful to you ! :)
Reply
waterman
9 months ago
Hi Nic ! I too shorted as per your idea and as it is about to touh h4 sma. Thank you
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD waterman
9 months ago
Additional confirmation ! I like it ! Good luck with your trade ! :)
Reply
waterman
9 months ago
200 sma
+1 Reply
It looked really nice, when I was opening - couple pips above you, it seemd as perfect wave count, waiting for reversal....
well, lets see...
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD sketchmaster
9 months ago
Well, the market is always right, we are not .. That's why we put stops :)
Anyway, it can still reverse, a trade is not lost until the stop loss is hit.
Reply
albert.callisto Nico.Muselle
9 months ago
I think it's interesting to look why the trade failed, to improve ourselves. Of course it's always easier afterwards to understand the whole picture. Anyway, I switch to Ichimoku and see that there was a cloud twist nearby. Such thin areas are providing some path of least resistance to the price and, considering that Kijun was broken with ease, there was a fairly good probability that the price would try to reach the upper side of the thin cloud (your stop).
Reply
pointoftangency Nico.Muselle
9 months ago
Stop hit
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle MOD pointoftangency
9 months ago
Yep ... just proves again that you cannot win them all :)
Reply
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