As signaled this hour on Twitter (alias: @4xForecaster):
"AUDCAD - Short @ 1.01842; SL at structure HIGH = 1.01919; TG-1 = 1.01173; TG-Lo = 1.00892 - RR > 12:1"
WOLFE vs. ELLIOTT WAVES INTERPLAY:
The trigger is a Wolfe Waves pattern completion at the 5-prime position (a.k.a.: Diagonal Triangle in Elliott Waves parlance) following an impulse that culminated at 1.01911 (see chart).
That same impulse might be interpreted as the 3rd wave of a potential 5-wave move, while offering a potential interim relief decline to complete the 4th wave.
This same 4th wave has the potential to take shape from a target-line validation typically seen in Wolfe Waves behavior, whereby price rolls from Point-5 (or, as in this case, from 5-prime), allowing price to fall and seek support at the projection of points 1 and 4, along the 1-4 line, a.k.a.: "target line".
This Wolfe vs. Elliott Waves interplay is not contradictory. Instead, both stand to gain completion if price unfolds per their anticipated behaviors, thus raising the odds of this trade to a worthy level.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
Pit against the predictive/forecasting model, several targets are emerging within a specific sequence.
FIRST and foremost, a primary target ("TG-1 = 1.01173 - 30 JUL 2014") comes first in line of sight, graded as moderate in terms of probability of getting hit.
SECOND comes a target-low ("TG-Lo = 1.00892 - 30 JUL 2014"), defining a strong support and potential reversal level IF price does indeed reach that level. For the time being, TG-1 should be considered a higher probable level of reversal, based on their relative probability levels.
THIRD and last, a target-high ("TG-Hi = 1.02346 - 30 JUL 2014") is emerging as a low-probability overhead.
OVERALL:
Taken all together, the Wolve Waves, Elliott Waves and Model are pointing to probable levels, whose pathways are punctuate by a systematic completion of high-probability patterns, combined with moderate/low probability targets. The directional bias remains short as we consider the sequence defined herein as first seeking support before a loftier level is sought.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
------------------------------- Twitter signals: @4xForecasting Archives of signals: bit.ly/16JMnH8 -------------------------------
NOTE: All trades, signals and opinions are my own for educational purpose. They do not constitute a trading advice. - David Alcindor
One of the most important signal that developed herein is price breaking thru the pattern's 2-4 Line. This typically indicates a commitment in the given direction.
A Wolfe Waves pattern trader would seek TARGET at the 1-4 Line validation. This may or may not correspond to the overlaid predictive/forecasting targets in that same chart.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
31 JUL 2014 - Update:
From Twitter:
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AUDCAD hit TG-1 = 1.01173 per signal/forecast; TG-Lo = 1.00892 in force
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NOTE: There is a major discrepancy in the charts between TradingView and my live account data provider. In this chart, TG-1 looks like it has not been hit, but my trading account indicates that price LOW achieved at time of forecast target hit went as low as 1.01153 - The announcement is not a typo; the results is off of live account data, and not TradingView data.
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Traders,
So far, price has moved since signal was released yesterday (30 JUL 2014). Price dipped as much as 68.8 pips as it moved and took first target.