Each time the same-size sloped price range. It's actually range trading, with ranges shifting downward (in Jul and Aug) and recently - upward.
Comments
motleifaul
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I am quite satisfied with my analyses I develeoped for myself that are neither a system nor a science. But you chart made my mouth water for another idea. I will also read some Ackerman now. Perhaps there is something I can use. At least one lerns something about market behaviour seen from another point of view.
ForceFollower
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Sure, but it takes time for a new idea to sink in. It's always an evolution, a slow process of modifications. Your way of thinking already has some fundamentals that act as a reference framework. You learn a new idea, compare it with you what you know, and first - see if it contradicts or complements your state of knowledge. If it's the former, you'll reject it; if it's the latter you'll accept it, maybe even explore it. I've been doing it since 2008 and I can see that there are just fewer and fewer new ideas - but they are there. However, I don't think I need them all for my trading. They're useful, only if they give me an edge, a true edge that I can feel it's an edge, ie. a tiny little detail that I know very few, if any, people are aware of or practise. I read, watch, listen, think - all the while being sensitive to such details. And my best edges are the ideas I learned from others, adapted for myself, slightly developed and made them mine. :-)
cryptoyoda
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No obvious pitchforks (?) but a lot of Coghlan's 'path of price' - that's what's allowed you to generalise the idea of a range trade :)
ForceFollower
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Try to draw pitchfork here - they seem out of place. Now, even if you add the opposite frequency, you'll see the ranges are the same either upsloped or downsloped:
cryptoyoda
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I did, and came to the conclusion there wasn't a decent pitchfork to be had! And I think you mentioned before that there can often be visible up and downslopes coexisting...
Look at all the ABCds though (blue = reached D, orange = failed beyond 50% of CD, red = failed at 50% of CD leg):
I think the AB legs are often due to external shocks; the pitchforks work best when there aren't too many & price can 'bounce' freely for a while; the ABCDs aim to catch the first major bounce. So they're complementary...
One rule of thumb is buy at 25% into the projected CD; with a stop at C. The tricky bit is getting C right :)
ForceFollower
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I have watched a couple of videos by Ackerman. I have been through this kind of analysis before, esp. inspired by the famous Robert C. Miner (as well as Joe DiNapoli somewhat). I use these tools every day, but I don't show them too often on my charts as most people might not understand them. Actually, I call the ABCD patterns APPs (alternate price projections), taking this name from R.C. Miner. I distinguish impulsive and corrective APPS (I-APP and C-APP). My I-APP is Ackerman's CD leg and my C-APP is Ackerman's DE leg (if he labeled the waves further on). If this kind of analysis appeals to you, I recommend you read 'High Probability Trading Strategies' by Robert C. Miner.
I agree with you, here's the eternal question - is the C there yet? Is it confirmed or is the swing not done yet? Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Ackerman doesn't use absolute highs and lows, only the ones that ignite the actual impulse move. That's different from how I use these tools and actually I don't like the subjective choice of the A pivot.
Nevertheless, thank you for suggesting me this idea and showing it to me on my chart. I am going to watch more videos and see if this kind of analysis fits me.
cryptoyoda
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Thanks; I'll check out that book :) As you say, Mr Ackerman's As aren't necessariIy the obvious pivots; I guess this subjectivity of A could cause problems; in particular a small A could trigger an entry too early. But he has got some tricks that I think in practice define a 'minimal' AB leg in many cases, uses the CD midpoint and D as entries, and also has a way to enter with a minimal stop (camouflage). I think until the pattern's completish this is less so for C, and this is the main risk. Anyway, I'd be very interested to discuss it with you when you've had a chance to investigate it further (assuming you have time & interest).
ForceFollower
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Do you use the hidden P pivot as: a) a target or b) an entry point? I thought it was all about the 'a)' but you also mentioned 'b)' and so does R.A. in his videos.
cryptoyoda
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My understanding is P and D are both useful as entry points for anticipated trend changes. D is also the target when the CD-leg is anticipated to complete. He recommends using P as a place to take partial (50%) profits in some trades. I'll be signing up for his forum this week & asking lots of questions :)