The AUDCHF pair has just formed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame but even though it is theoretically a bullish structure, it hasn't historically behaved as such for this pair. We view its effect on the 1W time-frame in order to go as back in time as possible and get conclusions.
In the past 10 years (since the May 2014 1D Golden Cross, which was bullish) there have been 5 such formations, all of which made the pair peak either before or on the Cross and delivered a Lower Low, in some instances even with brutal sell-offs.
In the last 2 occurrences, the 1D Golden Cross started Channel Down declines that both hit at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) again before any trend change. As a result, we comfortably turn bearish now on AUDCHF, targeting the 1D MA200 by August.
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