The AUDCHF pair hit yesterday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 05 2022. The key on the current price action is the weekly (1W) closing. In September it failed to close a 1W candle above the 1D MA200 and naturally it got rejected to the bottom the long-term Channel Down that it has been trading in since mid 2021.
The current sequence is quite similar to the July 2021 - March 2022 fractal. The pair failed to close a week above the 1D MA200 during October 2021 and dropped back to the bottom of the Channel Down. In early March 2022 though, on the new 1D MA200 test, it succeeded at closing a week above it and the price soared eventually to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, just above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension level, completing a +10.60% rise.
So naturally if we get that weekly closing above the 1D MA200 now, probabilities are with us to buy and target 0.6800, whihc is slightly below a +10.60 extension and the 1.236 Fib. As long as the price closes below it though, it remains a sell opportunity, towards at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term.