hope.bleecker
Short

Australian Swiss Franc- Sell Right Tip

FX:AUDCHF   Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc
384 7 17
9 months ago
Tonight I am looking at possible short positions in the Australian Pairs, limited selling on New Zealand, weak Canadian, and buys on the CHF.

Aussie/Swiss rises to the top of my list for a couple of reasons, mostly significant retracement, a structural crown within a crown ( bearish pattern ). Break the countertrendline and go in now or pullback equal to the right tip at 7420 Selling into .7270 Stop should be above the last pivot. Thanks!
9 months ago
Order cancelled: OK well order is not exactly canceled but this has not triggered...I am still waiting on this trendline break. If you look closely, you will see the approaching double top on the daily timeframe... you can draw a counter trendline. I will let you know when I am on. Thanks!
9 months ago
Trade active: My order for this is reinstalled at 7500 for the sell. we now have the break... will let you know when I am on this.
9 months ago
Trade active: Set the order for the short at 7450.. 7232 target. Stop loss at 74800! Rock.. This will be a great trade for us. We are selling the right tip on the one hour.. Happy Monday!!
8 months ago
Trade active: This is a heavy area of support... I am on this from 7425 trading toward the pink line. This should break support. I am break even. One off.
8 months ago
Trade active: Forming a new AB boundary at support here.. I am going to resell the back of that blue daily trendline. :)
8 months ago
Trade closed manually: The buy on this did not come in but I am looking for the sell after the annoucement. Im going to clear the trade prior to the interest rate announcement. Thanks!
8 months ago
Trade active: This is going to run to .72.. I sold the pullback on this to 74200 with the aussie reversals, So I am in the sell going south to 72. Stop is pulled to break even. Thanks!
8 months ago
Trade closed manually: I think that the sideways action on this is a little indicative of indecision. CHF is generally a bull. However this one is not dropping with aussie usd still eyeing .80.. I may rejoin this trade from higher next quarter. Thanks!
hope.bleecker
9 months ago
Still waiting on this trendline break. If you look closely, you will see the approaching double top on the daily timeframe... you can draw a counter trendline. I will let you know when I am on. Thanks!
Reply
waterman
9 months ago
hopefully waiting for that to happen. thanks
Reply
FXJakovskii
9 months ago
Yeah... This analysis kinda confused me. Why go against your previous analysis of AUD strength? Please stick to your plan!
Reply
hope.bleecker FXJakovskii
9 months ago
I'm still waiting for this because of the risk conditions of the market. You can spot patterns and sometimes they do not materialize right away. I'm not on the entire basket and just because aussie dollar is buying it doesn't mean they all will run together always. The reason that I looked for the selling on aussie, new zealand, and pounds last night had to do with the risk conditions of the market. those pairs sold and they sold at relative rates. If you are going to to do this for a living, you really need to recognize those types of details. I am sticking to my plan. I am long on australia usd from much lower... looking for 80. I am not long on this pair. I am waiting for this pair to break a counter trendline and sell.
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FXJakovskii hope.bleecker
9 months ago
I do agree with the risk conditions, but .74 level in your analysis was broken and RBNZ statement is coming up today. I just didn't see it was worth to sell AUD and NZD pairs last night as a long term trader like you. I've been longing NZD/USD since 0.6576 too.
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hope.bleecker FXJakovskii
9 months ago
Right, exactly and I appreciate your opinions... I actually am holding my New Zealand Usd long tp .7045 from 66

With regard to aussie chf, the pattern still can still fulfill the short. At the time that I posted the pattern, the trade did not fit my risk reward ratio at that level. It is a level of resistance on the chart and I am still waiting on it. Technically, it would have been OK to enter where I prescribed it, with a small stop above the top of the shoulder at that pivot... It was much easier and safer for me to wait because I utilize 40 pip stops. There was, and always is the possibility that the trade can totally creep up that trendline long... which is exactly what it did. If I can offer anything to you it would be this... sometimes when the right shoulder tip is higher than the left it can totally creep up...it doesn't always do that but it can. I had a trade like that on pound yen last week where it began to show the pattern from lower. I entered and then quickly realized that I had to get out for 30 pips positive when it did not run. I had to exit and then had to wait for 150 pips. It finally did form the bearish crown and then broke the trendline, I entered and it provided 200 pips... after it broke the trendline... So again, if this dips, we will trade the back of the trendline... it's that simple. If it does not, well I'm not on it.. New Zealand Canada on my page is a great example of it. break and pullback.. coming into the TP now. Thanks for your comment.
Reply
FXJakovskii hope.bleecker
9 months ago
I admit that my view on NZD was a bit wrong that it went down for a significant amount. My additional lot at 0.6715 got closed by SL. I was expecting it to reach only 0.6740 level.
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