The AUD finished week (3/7) pushing through the Kumo cloud (area of consolidation) in doing so blasting through its last line of support the Senkou B (red line of cloud). With a hanging man followed by a shooting star earlier on the week signalling the impending reversal of recovery from the Monday morning open, the questions is how far down can it go.
Indicators:
Chikou (green): its in open space and very vertical suggesting plenty of momentum in the down move.
MACD: supports momentum analysis with both lines crossing the Zero mark with sufficient spacing as indicated by the histogram.
Exponential and Simple Moving average comparison indicators (purple zone and red zone respectively): I have compared a 12-period moving average with its corresponding 24-period moving average, and both short term averages have crossed below their longer term counterparts suggesting further drop in price.
Kumo cloud: the Senkou B (red) has crossed above the Senkou A (green) and both lines are pointing down, a strong bearish signal.
Analysis:
Personally I am expecting some pullback at least until the Tenkan (blue) and Kijun (red) catch up slightly but with the very average retail sales data coming out of Australia on Friday, I don't see the AUD recovering and eventually, as all the indicators suggest, a further drop can be expected. With the AUD also taking a hammering in the AUDUSD pairing, poor data and a slowing China price should test the March low, the lowest of 2015. Note that RBA is due to release possible interest rate movement. The consensus is no movement from the current 2% but don't be surprised if it does move lower particularly with the People's bank of China cutting its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points last week to a record low. If a cut in interest rate does happen this may be the fuel needed to maintain momentum in the already obvious downtrend.
Indicators:
Chikou (green): its in open space and very vertical suggesting plenty of momentum in the down move.
MACD: supports momentum analysis with both lines crossing the Zero mark with sufficient spacing as indicated by the histogram.
Exponential and Simple Moving average comparison indicators (purple zone and red zone respectively): I have compared a 12-period moving average with its corresponding 24-period moving average, and both short term averages have crossed below their longer term counterparts suggesting further drop in price.
Kumo cloud: the Senkou B (red) has crossed above the Senkou A (green) and both lines are pointing down, a strong bearish signal.
Analysis:
Personally I am expecting some pullback at least until the Tenkan (blue) and Kijun (red) catch up slightly but with the very average retail sales data coming out of Australia on Friday, I don't see the AUD recovering and eventually, as all the indicators suggest, a further drop can be expected. With the AUD also taking a hammering in the AUDUSD pairing, poor data and a slowing China price should test the March low, the lowest of 2015. Note that RBA is due to release possible interest rate movement. The consensus is no movement from the current 2% but don't be surprised if it does move lower particularly with the People's bank of China cutting its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points last week to a record low. If a cut in interest rate does happen this may be the fuel needed to maintain momentum in the already obvious downtrend.