FxWirePro
Long

AUD/JPY long entry triggers after break out of apex point

FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen
146 0 1
The pair has been able to break out above the crucial apex point of symmetric triangle at around 86.738 on 11th and soon after that event travelled up to 87.952 where it has surpassed 87.562 which is resistance at that juncture.

It has been broken yesterday on a closing basis which is likely to expose next resistance at 88.496.

Currently, the pair is struggling at 87.952 but with firm conviction we reckon that breaks above this resistance after the yesterday's green candle would certainly take this test 1 month highs back again.

Even if the prices drops, throw back to the apex point at 86.50 levels would be maximum level and crucial support is seen at that levels again.

More importantly, as shown in the diagram symmetric triangle pattern is spotted out,

Breakout on above direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.

Breakout Confirmation: This break has to be considered a valid, because it is on a closing basis. We noticed a price bounce (about 1.40% breaks above) or time (sustained for 5 consecutive days) filter to confirm validity. So, what else are we waiting for?

For more substantiation, leading oscillators like RSI and slow stochastic curves are showing positive convergence with the upswings; we believe this as bulls are getting active.

RSI is currently trending at around 56.53.18 that has been showing upward convergence to the price bounces, while stochastic reached 80 levels but no convincing crossover of %D line.
Hence, it is advisable to buy at every decline for targets at around 88.496.

Deploy bull back spread on AUD/JPY’s HY vols

As we’ve run through the bullish indications based on above technical reasoning, we would also like to advocate strategies so as to match the trend.

Vega             on Long ATM Call = 494.75
Vega             on Long (1.5%) OTM Call = 296.54

The current IV of AUDJPY             ATM call is higher side at 14.58% which is good for writers, usually if the Vega             of a long option position is positive and the implied volatility rises or dips, the above stated option prices are directly proportional to the implied volatility.

So in this case Vega             both on long position is reasonably acceptable. It is desirable that at maturity the underlying exchange rate of AUDNZD             to remain near short strikes in order to achieve highest returns.

Hence, we recommend it is better to cover all your shorts and as shown in the diagram purchase 2 lots of 15D at the money +0.51 delta calls and simultaneously short 1 lot of 1W (1.5%) out of the money call with positive theta in the ratio of 2:1.

The higher strike short calls because IV is inching higher at 14.58% (this is good news for option writers) and it finances the purchase of the greater number of long calls (ATM calls are overpriced, so we chose 1% OTM calls as well) and the position is entered for reduced cost.

If established for a net debit, the break-even point is equal to higher strike plus the maximum risk (higher strike minus lower strike plus the net debit paid).
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