This chart speaks for itself really. The AUDJPY is hovering just below its 200-day moving average (currently at 80.11) with a bearish trend line resistance at 80.70/80. Upcoming Japaneses inflation data may provide a catalyst for a more clear direction in prices, which could possibly help determine whether this pair is destined to fall once again or break free of its predominant downward trend. The underlying fundamentals (i.e. central bank policy) favor prices to remain under pressure, but there is a lot of uncertainty currently over the BoJ and its stance on adding to its QE package. Traders should, therefore, react more to Japanese inflation data than they did following the Australian CPI release earlier this week. As it stands, so long as the AUDJPY trades below 80.70, the risk/reward ratio for short strategies (swing trading) is attractive. Possible targets for such strategies would be 78 and 76, the latter requiring generalized pressures on the Aussie dollar in November. If prices break above 81 in the next couple of days, however, I would be inclined to believe that the market could rise back up to around 85/86. This would really require the yen to be sold off, however, as the Aussie has already risen against most of its counterparts recently.
Comment:
The market hit a high of 80.63 today, and looks like we have a shooting star configuration on the daily chart. Very nice so far.