Average monthly price fluctuation 200 PIPs, time to complete 5 months
Current reached, 600 PIPs, balance 400 PIPs (2 months)
Target Zone Trading Strategy:
Long below the current monthly lower ceiling
Stop loss below entry rate, 50-100 PIPs, to be managed overtime to risk free
Target 400 PIPs, plus price correction
Monthly Target Zone Trading Strategy:
Long below the current monthly lower ceiling
Stop loss near entry rate, 50-100 PIPs, to be managed overtime to risk free
Target 200 PIPs, plus monthly price correction
The most accurte mearusement however is to long CADJPY at her equivalent weigthed rates to CADCHF, EURCAD and USDCAD interior their monthly bands, similar to NZDJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY and CHFJPY.
I will continue t long/long/long the interest rate differential prices of the USDJPY, CADJPY, NZDJY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY, CHFJPY, and at the same time to long/long/long the interest rate differential prices of the CADCHF, NZDCHF, AUDCHF, GBPCHF, EURCHF, and at the same time to short/short/short EURCAD, EURNZD, EURAUD, EURGBP. After completion on the long/long/long JPY-pegged pairs, long/long/long the CHF-pegged pairs and short/short/short the EUR-pegged pairs and closed as their interest rate differential prices already reached then followed by the short/short/short for the NZDUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD (long USDCAD). At such, interest rate differential prices trading is a "non-stop trading operation" around the clock. This is likely could be identified by "interdays technical charting".
Emerging markets, developing and under developing nations may not qualify for Plaza, Louvre and EMS treaty and result the introduction of global monetarists consensus on target zone, thus target zone theory endorsed by four policies, the Plaza, Louvre, EMS and monetarists.
dificulty faced by the equilibrium exchange rate theory on the measurement at what exchange rate the equilibrium exchange rate at economic fundamental (disequilibrium) and at what exchange rate the equilibrium exchange rate at interest rate differetials (equilibrium) by the mixed interest rate differentials of the global currency pairs ?. This is resolved by the introduction of currency band theory, the tool to be used for measuring the lower and the upper ceilings/bands of the target zone at mixed interest rate differentials. Thus, there are two currency bands, (1) the time series currency band for measuring target zones (medium and short target zones), medium term target zone also known as medium term directional trend and short term target zone also known as short term directional trend. The short term directional trend is the result of sterlization interior the medium term target zone (sometime called large pullback or large rebound), (2) the time series interest rate differential-based currency band as the baseline for measuring the interest rate differential prices on annually, semi-annually, quarterly and monthy at current interest rate differentials. Monetary policy on interest rate usually made public on monthly thus monthly is the shortest period for FX price measurement by currency band.
Thus, time series interest rate differetial-based currency band is the tool to measure what is the equivalent price of AUDUSD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF, EURAUD and other at lower ceilings and at upper ceilings, to include all developed nations, emerging market countries, developing and under developing countries currencies. This equivalent rates are also called weighted rate or average weghted rates or relative prices (do not mixed with the weighted prices measured by central banks in relation to global trade on export-import, they are different).
Interdays is interior the monthly ceilings/bands the terriitory of trading for FX prime dealers to trade. They are also measured by their interest rate differential prices by their weighted rates. Technical traders seem to indetify this interdays by using 15M and 10M technical charts interior the monthly ceilings/bands. The risk of this interdays however can only to be mitigated by accurate measurement of their weighted rates interior their monthly ceilings/bands.
THUS, currency band not Bolinger band. Bolinger band introduced by Bolinger and currency band theory introduced by Paul Krugman. Equilibrium exchange rate theory introduced by Williamsons, and the target zone theory introduced by Williamsons and endorsed by the policy with Plaza, Louvre and EMS. Global monetarists endorsed the theory by global monetarists consensus, specifically for non-developed nations.
The weigted rates to USD-pegged pairs, CHF-pegged pairs and EUR-pegged pairs are in harmony and sligthly mixed therefore risk on prices adjustment may not exceeding 100 PIPs price elasticity.
For interdays 50-150 PIPs
For monthly price fluctuation 200 PIPs, plus existing price corrections