Hello trader, this is my FA on this pair:
( if any has any idea relate to this opinion: feel free to comment, i would graciously appreciate it)
US-China Traderwar is heating up
The tradewar's effects from my POV
- AUD: + will lower (actually already went lower at this point this is written) due to increase demand in export with AU's biggest trading partner
+ will lower due to China slow in economy.
+ Gold: slowly go higher due to currency instability, this will keep AUD decline at a more steady rate
- JPY: + Car export (20% of JP export) will be hurt by China
+ is believed to maintain it's stability (if not higher) while it's biggest trading partner(China) economy has shown its decline in growth pace and in the tradewar with Jp's second biggest partner- US
+ Material import from AU may grow due to its need to lower price to compete with china's car export about to rise
Conclusion: this pair will drop to 68-70
*AU in relation with China:
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/imports-by-country
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/exports-by-country
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-15/australia-china-two-way-trade/10716678
*JP in relation with China and AU:
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/imports-by-country
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-27/china-is-set-to-conquer-global-used-car-export-market
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/jpn/
Right now: short now or wait for a recovery to open a Short position
If there's anyone cares about this idea, please take this with a pinch of salt
Feelfree to comment!
Happy and safe trading!
( if any has any idea relate to this opinion: feel free to comment, i would graciously appreciate it)
US-China Traderwar is heating up
The tradewar's effects from my POV
- AUD: + will lower (actually already went lower at this point this is written) due to increase demand in export with AU's biggest trading partner
+ will lower due to China slow in economy.
+ Gold: slowly go higher due to currency instability, this will keep AUD decline at a more steady rate
- JPY: + Car export (20% of JP export) will be hurt by China
+ is believed to maintain it's stability (if not higher) while it's biggest trading partner(China) economy has shown its decline in growth pace and in the tradewar with Jp's second biggest partner- US
+ Material import from AU may grow due to its need to lower price to compete with china's car export about to rise
Conclusion: this pair will drop to 68-70
*AU in relation with China:
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/imports-by-country
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/exports-by-country
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-15/australia-china-two-way-trade/10716678
*JP in relation with China and AU:
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/imports-by-country
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-27/china-is-set-to-conquer-global-used-car-export-market
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/jpn/
Right now: short now or wait for a recovery to open a Short position
If there's anyone cares about this idea, please take this with a pinch of salt
Feelfree to comment!
Happy and safe trading!