Steady AUD & Weak YEN Could Make AUDJPY HIT 89.000
AUDJPY could target the next high at 89.00 as the path remains clear with least obstacles.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the MONTHLY TF the monthly candle closed ideally above 85.000 crucial psychological resistance, indicating that the price is ready to head higher.
On the main weekly chart we can see the price failed to break the higher high at 86.00, which is very crucial as the break here would likely remove all obstacles for the price to target the next high at 89.00. Therefore to trade with high probability, the weekly candle must first close above 86.00. Once this happens, the price is highly likely to target 89.00 without much obstacles on the way up. The ascending channel kind of acts a guide for the price to climb steadily with both M & W EMA acting as strong dynamic support.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Now here is the bold statement: WEAKER YEN & STEADY AUD should make AUDJPY appreciate!
Japan's economy faces a tough road ahead compared to its G-7 peers, with the lowest projected rate of growth for 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund. The supply-chain issues plaguing the global economic landscape have hit Japan especially hard. Japan's gross domestic product contracted an annualized 3.0 percent on year in the third quarter of 2021. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP sank 0.8 percent - again missing forecasts for a fall of 0.2 percent following the downwardly revised 0.4 percent gain in the second quarter.
For the AUD its not a surprise that USD CPI reading last week caused the currency to depreciate. Last week the NAB business conditions and confidence data came in stronger than last month, as did the Westpac consumer confidence survey.
The downside for the AUD came via the jobs numbers last week. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% VS 4.8%. Employment fell by 46K VS 50K.
26th September to 9th October was the period covered for this data. Therefore this did not capture a large amount of population coming out of lockdown. Next month’s jobs data will play a major role and show us how is the economy faring.
Considering all this. the AUD might appreciate especially against the weaker currencies like the YEN and we could well see AUDJPY HIT 89.00.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the MONTHLY TF the monthly candle closed ideally above 85.000 crucial psychological resistance, indicating that the price is ready to head higher.
On the main weekly chart we can see the price failed to break the higher high at 86.00, which is very crucial as the break here would likely remove all obstacles for the price to target the next high at 89.00. Therefore to trade with high probability, the weekly candle must first close above 86.00. Once this happens, the price is highly likely to target 89.00 without much obstacles on the way up. The ascending channel kind of acts a guide for the price to climb steadily with both M & W EMA acting as strong dynamic support.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Now here is the bold statement: WEAKER YEN & STEADY AUD should make AUDJPY appreciate!
Japan's economy faces a tough road ahead compared to its G-7 peers, with the lowest projected rate of growth for 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund. The supply-chain issues plaguing the global economic landscape have hit Japan especially hard. Japan's gross domestic product contracted an annualized 3.0 percent on year in the third quarter of 2021. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP sank 0.8 percent - again missing forecasts for a fall of 0.2 percent following the downwardly revised 0.4 percent gain in the second quarter.
For the AUD its not a surprise that USD CPI reading last week caused the currency to depreciate. Last week the NAB business conditions and confidence data came in stronger than last month, as did the Westpac consumer confidence survey.
The downside for the AUD came via the jobs numbers last week. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% VS 4.8%. Employment fell by 46K VS 50K.
26th September to 9th October was the period covered for this data. Therefore this did not capture a large amount of population coming out of lockdown. Next month’s jobs data will play a major role and show us how is the economy faring.
Considering all this. the AUD might appreciate especially against the weaker currencies like the YEN and we could well see AUDJPY HIT 89.00.
