Currently, at the time of writing this article, we are sitting above the 78.750 monthly key level. We are respecting the descending , however we have broken the ascending . Price has also been ranging between the 77.700-79.800 price region from early January till now. We began to see downside momentum after consolidating between the 25th of February and 5th of March, where we then saw price break the consolidation zone creating a lower low followed by a lower high.
I favour a short bias however I'd like for price to close below the monthly key level or see a break and retest. Price could also push higher, seeing stop hunts and break the descending and retest the ascending , around the 79.500 price region, which will be another retracement to the 61.8 Fibonacci level. I will be waiting for more confirmation on this pair however price looks . With speculation in the air surrounding the Aussie Dollar likely slipping below 0.70 USD in the second half of 2019, this may be a high probability setup with downside targets of 73.500 and 71.000 long term.
If the descending is broken, retested and then we see an aggressive movement, this short may be invalidated. As always, risk management is key and trade responsibly. Only use my analysis in line with yours, do not doubt or change your bias.
If any further questions are needed, hit me up on instagram: keownarcher