This is the update on the AUDJPY Continuation Breakout Plan
We recall the Entry Conditions and Time Limit stated in this plan is as follows.
Entry Conditions Enter Short When both X and Y are TRUE
X) AUDJPY can convincingly do an Hourly close below 90.25 Y) Entry price is not higher than 90.25
Original Time Limit 2015-07-31 18:00
Update: After the Plan was posted, price tried to trade higher to 90.80s but was subsequently sharply resisted. This in effect means that there is more buildup in price action which will contribute to a stronger breakout.
However, more build up results in a delay in Breakout, which also means that we should adjust the Time Limit, based on new Price Action. So please take note the New Time Limit is 2015-08-03 18:00
Price has also closed an hourly bar below 90.25 and trading around 90.10s currently. This means both Entry Conditions X) and Y) are TRUE and a Short Position can be executed now.
Stop Loss Initially we can place the Stop Loss above 90.50. If price manages to trade towards 90.00 after entry, we can consider shifting the stop loss to either 90.25 or breakeven.
Shifting of Stop Loss is essentially a move to protect your Risk Capital. After all there is no shortage of trading opportunities but capital is always in limited supply.
Taking Profit The main profit target is at 89.50, where price found twice buying twice.
However, we can consider taking a small partial profit (say about 20%) when price reaches 90.00 This is because 90.00 is a round figure support and there maybe some support buying taking some momentum out of the bearish move.
Risk There is always the risk of a false breakout, therefore please do adequate position sizing. Also there is also the risk of fundamental data releases, which can drive prices to behave "abnormally". The Forex Factory Calendar is a pretty good reference.
Kinda had me worrying with the huge move, but after reviewing the daily chart, there is still some potential.
BreakOutArtist
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Agreed that there is still potential on the daily time frame.
However, this hourly breakout plan is over, as the "risk of fundamental data releases, which can drive prices to behave "abnormally" " , did happened drives the price through the stops.