kiwiwalnut
Short

AUDJPY Short~Mid Term Bearish Mid~Long Bullish

FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Plotting idea for short strategies for this pair ATM.
Risk Reversals skewing to the downside.
Personally feel the one more downside leg to come with targets at 81.00 / 79.00 / 76.7 - will need large risk event to take this to this level.
Size of down leg to be determined but have yet to determine where market sentiment will lean more heavily on... DPK or Tariffs.
Recent price action suggests DPK event has more sway than tariffs for JPY pairs since there is always the TPP to buffer the impact of US sanctions to the Pacific nations.
Tariffs will have more bearing towards a bearish dollar than JPY so all eyes on the summit
More to come .....
Jun 05
Trade active: Will look to add short depending on price action, possible for a reattempt of 84.45~ handle so solid close after a retest at this level may justify additional shorts.
I'm wary of the up coming summit in Singapore but China will always continue to be the mid to long term regional strategic.
Will look to take some off at 82.9~ area if we get there before the summit
Jun 06
Comment: Rejected at 84.45 level but not seeing exhaustion at smaller time frames.
Could have been too early on this as weekly Head and shoulder is forming up which means upper bound targets for bulls will be 84.9 area.
Holding off on addition shorts for now
Jun 07
Comment: With AU econ calendar absent of big releases bar consumer confidence, commodities pricing will be the driver of AU pairs and risk events for the Yen.
Jun 07
Comment: 30 Min MA squeeze broken lower for 200MA support @ 83.8 however 83.7 will be the true test where if cleared will pave the way for 83.2
Jun 10
Comment: Moving SL to break even and leaving this be - will take half off if this pair gaps down on NZ/AU open.

Unless there is a complete breakdown of talks at Singapore tomorrow, will be expecting this to be largely flat with spikes in volatility on any news that comes from this summit. The White House will surely be trumpeting any minuscule progress as ground breaking etc etc.
However after the G7 summit, am inclined to say that Trump's negotiation position has weakened somewhat however with the prospect of a Nobel, bragging rights and perpetual 'middle finger' to everyone in the Western world of achieving anything meaningful with Kim; not surprised if Trump goes limp to gain a 'win'.

Either all, high potential of event risk is undeniable for all Yen pairs.
Jun 14
Comment: SL was triggered but reenterred just below 84.
SL for new position equal to previous profits taken one Monday open so this is a 'no risk trade'.
Road is open to 81 IF price breaks 82.40 level but keeping mindful of upwards price moves back to 84.2 for further consolidation of a 4H pendent / flag.
Jun 19
Comment: Took half profit at 81 and setting trailing stop of 100 pips and leaving
Bullish 4H Flag and it's upside target if completed and bearish continuation to 4H channel to be mindful of.


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FYI - the blue swing forecasts was based off RR options and forwards of this FX pair, commodity copper and iron Futures combined with a broad macro fundamental view. Since some of the these are more fickle than others, it is very much a projection of where I see this pair is heading in the med term and is under constant revision.
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Valid concern for this idea is the weekly H&S pattern forming, would eventuate in event of massive off risk event - something along the lines of Trump backing down on tariffs at G7. Though would be interesting to see what the EU members are going to offer on the table for exemption of their companies doing business in Iran with US sanctions in force. The US is completely isolated after losing Macron which is why my view on this summit will mainly be a disappoint, only thing that all members will agree on is China's push for global influence.
China's conceptual strategy of control is firstly through trade leverage, followed by local influence to drive investment in key infrastructure and utilities. Successful projects will garner much wanted pro Beijing support and a wealth of influence in developing nations like Africa and failed ones will be left with crippling debt. Those that cannot refinance on favorable terms will be offered either a "land lease" in exchange for debt write off in an otherwise remote location or selective access to their market of natural resources. If this is starting to sound familiar and somewhat ironic then this is because the Chinese learnt this lesson at a great cost. The Opium Wars and the eventual cession of a seemingly random fishing village of Hong Kong. The only difference today is that the world's flavor of poison is in the form of cheap credit to sustain what some say as artificial growth instead of opium.
Debt Trap Diplomacy 101.
So will not be surprised at all if there are joint navy exercises in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea from our G7 friends in the near future.

Semi off topic rant aside, geopolitical risk events aplenty for the foreseeable future which will bring opportunities aplenty in JPY pairs
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kiwiwalnut kiwiwalnut
@kiwiwalnut, FUrther to above comment after G7, will likely see a gap down Monday open that will be filled slowly followed be flat trading as market wait for news on Singapore Summit
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Battling it out on 30min squeezing between 50MA and 100 MA. Likely to see a big moving today on the lower time frame charts
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Thank you for your great job....are you in right now?
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kiwiwalnut Ehsan1991
@Ehsan1991, Hey Ehsan, yes - still committed to this short. looking to add if price moves in right direction
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