Risk Reversals skewing to the downside.
Personally feel the one more downside leg to come with targets at 81.00 / 79.00 / 76.7 - will need large risk event to take this to this level.
Size of down leg to be determined but have yet to determine where market sentiment will lean more heavily on... DPK or Tariffs.
Recent price action suggests DPK event has more sway than tariffs for JPY pairs since there is always the TPP to buffer the impact of US sanctions to the Pacific nations.
Tariffs will have more bearing towards a dollar than JPY so all eyes on the summit
More to come .....
I'm wary of the up coming summit in Singapore but China will always continue to be the mid to long term regional strategic.
Will look to take some off at 82.9~ area if we get there before the summit
Could have been too early on this as weekly Head and shoulder is forming up which means upper bound targets for bulls will be 84.9 area.
Holding off on addition shorts for now
Unless there is a complete breakdown of talks at Singapore tomorrow, will be expecting this to be largely flat with spikes in volatility on any news that comes from this summit. The White House will surely be trumpeting any minuscule progress as ground breaking etc etc.
However after the G7 summit, am inclined to say that Trump's negotiation position has weakened somewhat however with the prospect of a Nobel, bragging rights and perpetual 'middle finger' to everyone in the Western world of achieving anything meaningful with Kim; not surprised if Trump goes limp to gain a 'win'.
Either all, high potential of event risk is undeniable for all Yen pairs.
SL for new position equal to previous profits taken one Monday open so this is a 'no risk trade'.
Road is open to 81 IF price breaks 82.40 level but keeping mindful of upwards price moves back to 84.2 for further consolidation of a 4H pendent / flag.
Valid concern for this idea is the weekly H&S pattern forming, would eventuate in event of massive off risk event - something along the lines of Trump backing down on tariffs at G7. Though would be interesting to see what the EU members are going to offer on the table for exemption of their companies doing business in Iran with US sanctions in force. The US is completely isolated after losing Macron which is why my view on this summit will mainly be a disappoint, only thing that all members will agree on is China's push for global influence.
China's conceptual strategy of control is firstly through trade leverage, followed by local influence to drive investment in key infrastructure and utilities. Successful projects will garner much wanted pro Beijing support and a wealth of influence in developing nations like Africa and failed ones will be left with crippling debt. Those that cannot refinance on favorable terms will be offered either a "land lease" in exchange for debt write off in an otherwise remote location or selective access to their market of natural resources. If this is starting to sound familiar and somewhat ironic then this is because the Chinese learnt this lesson at a great cost. The Opium Wars and the eventual cession of a seemingly random fishing village of Hong Kong. The only difference today is that the world's flavor of poison is in the form of cheap credit to sustain what some say as artificial growth instead of opium.
Debt Trap Diplomacy 101.
So will not be surprised at all if there are joint navy exercises in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea from our G7 friends in the near future.
Semi off topic rant aside, geopolitical risk events aplenty for the foreseeable future which will bring opportunities aplenty in JPY pairs