AUD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup (Revised)

📊 Technical Structure
AUDJPY On the 60M chart, AUD/JPY is attempting a recovery after a sharp decline earlier in the week. The price action shows a clear rejection from the lower levels, with the pair now climbing back toward a critical Resistance Zone located between 111.1669 – 111.2953.
The current structure highlights a descending trendline that has acted as a ceiling for recent price action. A firm Support Zone is established at 110.5900 – 110.7340. For a bullish reversal to be confirmed, the price must break and find acceptance above the trendline and the 111.29 resistance level.
Short-term bias: Neutral/Bullish while holding above 110.61.
Key Resistance: 111.16 – 111.29.
Key Support: 110.61 – 110.73.

🎯 Trade Setup (Buying the Dip at Support)
Entry Zone: 110.61 – 110.73 (Positioning near the primary horizontal support).
Stop Loss: 110.59 (Placed strictly below the recent structural support).
Take Profit 1: 111.16 (Bottom of the resistance zone).
Take Profit 2: 111.29 (Top of the resistance zone/trendline target).
Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:3.28
📌 Invalidation:
A sustained break and hourly close below 110.59 would invalidate this setup, suggesting that the bearish trend has resumed and exposing the 110.00 level.

🌐 Macro Background
BoJ Outlook: Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a "prolonged hold" on interest rates due to global economic uncertainty from the Middle East war, which has weakened the JPY.
Deflation & War: Japan's Finance Minister noted that the government is ready to combat the economic impact of the Iran conflict and mentioned that Japan has not yet fully exited deflation.
RBA Support: Despite a narrower-than-expected trade surplus in January, hawkish rhetoric from the RBA continues to provide a structural floor for the Australian Dollar.

📌 Trade Summary
The setup focuses on buying the support floor at 110.73, betting on the JPY's weakness following the BoJ's cautious stance.
Preferred strategy: Seek long entries on minor pullbacks toward 110.73, targeting the 111.16 neighbourhood while keeping a tight stop below the 110.59 support.

⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.