There is a SHOWDOWN in this pair between safe heaven and risk on /off currencies. This formation developed over the last few months on the daily timeframe
seems to finally come to a decision in the next few days. There is a potential of about 400 pips to the downside once a definitve break of the necklinie is confirmed. So far, nothing has happened in this case. I am a little concerned about the short side - although the divergence with the momentum is pretty obvious. On every level of this formation the momentum has formed a negative divergence. But as long as the red -thin- upward line in the momentum has not been broken I remain suspicous about going short. Let us see how it plays out over the next two days. From the point of the Aussie Future and the Commitment of traders data - not shown here- can be stated that the aussie dollar is - at the moment - in a very vulnerable position. We need to see a definite break - that is why I am still neutral on this pair. I am willing to go short as soon as I see confirmation as mentioned before.