After making a bottom 24th of August, this pair has managed to retrace half of the ground it had lost in summer. But there are plenty of reasons to believe that this rise is rather corrective. Apart from the fact that the uptrend is overlapping and forming a channel, it has consumed too much time which is a powerful sign that the bulls have little determination to reverse the trend completely. In layman's time analysis language, the bulls have been offered an equal time - about 72 trading days - to the time period when bears were aggressively selling this pair to new lows but have managed to just retrace 50% of the move caused by the bearish
onslaught. This does sound bearish
Turning on price analysis, we have 3 reasons to go short or at least liquidate if we are long:
1- A massive change of polarity zone. This former support had held the bears at bay 4 times before in February and July.
2- Top area of an ascending channel
3- A bearish
A decline below 88 support will boost our confidence that this pair is headed south again, most probably to make new lows.
Cyclical Waves Group