AUD/JPY’s hammer deceives, RSI reaffirms major downtrend

FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
AUDJPY  drags price dips today, down about -0.37% as Chinese domestic demand saw a broad-based easing in April.

Advances in retail sales decelerated from 8.7% YoY in Mar to 7.2%, the slowest growth since 2003.

Industrial production and investment fell to 5.4% and 6.1% (YoY YTD) from 8.5% and 6.3%.

Technically, the bears of this pair seem to be disregarding hammer pattern traced at the strong support, the strong supports are observed at 77.468 levels, there has been considerable follow-through from thereon.

As a result, one can make out that the major downtrend has resumed, while stochastic remain indecisive, whereas RSI and both trend indicators ( bearish EMA & MACD crossovers) signal renewed weakness (refer monthly chart).

The stimulated bears, in the minor trend, extend on the gap-down pattern at 77.082 levels (refer daily plotting) with the decisive breach of strong support as both leading and lagging oscillators on this timeframe as well, signal extreme weakness.

For now, more slumps appears to be on the cards as current price remains well below DMAs.

Well, any abrupt rallies should be capped by the ongoing debate over RBA  rate cut timing and nerves over US-China trade relations, with probes of 72.007 areas are quite possible in the weeks to come.

Trade tips: At spot reference: 75.655 levels, contemplating above technical rationale, one can execute one touch put options strategy. Such exotic option with lower strikes at 75.240 levels favoring prevailing selling sentiments.

Alternatively, shorting futures of mid-month tenors are advocated with a view of arresting further potential slumps. Writers in a futures contract are expected to maintain margins in order to open and maintain a short futures position.

Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly AUD is flashing at -32 levels ( bearish ), while hourly JPY spot index is at 45 levels (which is bullish ) while articulating at (06:33 GMT ).
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