We have data at 1400 NZST with the RBNZ rate announcement and statement that could provide a catalyst for the next move. Markets are pricing in three rate cuts this year for the kiwi whilst the reserve bank are suggesting none until next year. If the bank remains hawkish and holds interest rates then we might see some profit taking in the pair. I personally wouldn’t over stay my welcome shorting this as data from NZ is continuously weak.
AUDNZD is at a very interesting point here. RBNZ was indeed a little on the hawkish side and we saw some profit taking👍
I'm keeping my eyes on the NZ CPI on the 16.April -> they will decide the fate in this pair (in my opinion)
goo_square-0h
⋅
@PrimeTrading NZ CPI forecast at 0.6% m/m up from 0.5% previously. I read in the AFR this morning that the talking heads in Australia believe that the kiwi will blink first and cut in November whilst Ozzie will hold til Feb. If CPI is hot in NZ on Wednesday that might push back rate hike expectations and support the Kiwi coupled with an election in Oz in May next year raising bets that interests rate there are likely to drop earlier. The easier trade in my opinion would be soft NZ CPI and resumption of the HT trend looking for a break above and retest of the previous support and a target of the 1.1 area (I just see the Kiwi as the worst horse in the glue factory) 😭
PrimeTrading
⋅
@goo_square-0h, very well analyzed! Chapeau!👏 Are you a Kiwi or why are you sad it being the (possibly) weakest currency?😃
I like the Kiwi honestly. Yeah the economy is not doing great by all means but the market pricing (1st cut in August) is waaaay to early -> would need a very weak CPI + employment data for that to happen -> if both are solid (don't even need to be great) cuts will be priced out -> strong NZD
But: Right now I'm liking the Aussie a little more, so agree with you: the easier trade right now is upwards👍 Lets see what the NZ CPI will offer!
goo_square-0h
⋅
@PrimeTrading yes I am living in NZ. NZ GDP is negative, housing and immigration are the main revenue earners and both are weak. China as an export partner is open to pull backs geopolitically. Dairy and timber are prime exports and would be supported by a weak dollar. Our main four banks are owned by Australia and therefore likely to move quickly to support housing rather than a governments fight on inflation. It’s difficult to reflect this against most Majors as they all have dirty shirts in this financial laundry. I think EUR/USD short next week if we retrace makes a lot of sense Macroeconomic. I also like possibly shorting the SPY but see strong corporate inflows with buy backs likely to prop this index long term.
PrimeTrading
⋅
@goo_square-0h, when did you start trading? You have a good (fundamental) read of the market and a logical reasoning.
How would you describe the consumer sentiment in NZ right now? Retail sales are coming in weak and weaker, but maybe there is some light at the end of the Tunnel?
EURUSD Short after a retracement makes sense, I agree with this one. The rate divergence with the FED is too big and can / will get bigger.
Shorting SPY = the widow trade :D Its a hard one. Maybe shortterm till 16th (Tax Day) You are eyeing a short-term one or longer trade?
goo_square-0h
⋅
Trading a while a now but starting to put more effort into it. Prefer the macro outlook as confluence for TA. I mostly day trade tbh - not really into the swing thing and would rather follow the 4h trend for direction with breaks and retests. Retail in NZ is pretty bad I hear in terms of discretionary spending, although those with cash are benefiting from better rates and higher asset values ( for now at least).
goo_square-0h
⋅
There were a few nice 1h candles to get a clean entry however a scaled in over three positions on the 15m. Closed the positions at 3R. Did you have a look at this set up?
Keep up the good work!
AUDNZD is at a very interesting point here.
RBNZ was indeed a little on the hawkish side and we saw some profit taking👍
I'm keeping my eyes on the NZ CPI on the 16.April
-> they will decide the fate in this pair (in my opinion)