4xForecaster
Long

$AUD/$NZD S/T, M/T, L/T Forecast | #forex #RBA #RBNZ

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
1060 51 15
Friends,


WHAT MY ANALYSES IS AND IS NOT:

Before I gladly answer a request for a medium-term and short term predictive analysis and forecasting for this $AUDNZD pair, I would like to caution the trader by saying two things about the purpose and manner in which I render the predictive and forecasting values.

First: My predictive analyses and forecasts are educational - All of I offer is for advanced trades who have an already well-established habit of "planning their trade, then trading their plan". I am glad that it may be enjoyed by some as an added weight in the confidence they already have gained in their own practice, but the real purpose is purely educational and intellectual.

Second: My predictive analyses and forecast do NOT use pivots - I was recently asked why I do not show pivots in the analyses. The answer is simple: The values that are derived from the predictive/forecasting model are defined in terms of direction and strength outside of the price field. Meaning that a vector with confirmed direction and relative length is defined before I even lay eyes on a chart - That's quantitative analysis at its best.

As unreal as it may sound, in fact, my results tend to instead define future pivots, rather than be defined by former ones. Here is a perfect supportive example for this claim (which happens to be on the same $AUDNZD) - Simply click on the arrow within the price field, and see where price leads you as it moves forward. Now, click that arrow a few more times, and see how that level has turned into a pivot for future price development.

That trade was released on 21 MAR 2014, and carried the following profile:
Entry = 1.0637
Stop-Loss = 1.05747
Target = 1.09086
Reward-to-Risk = 4.4:1
Hit Dead-On on 16 APR 2014 (continued to act as a significant pivot moving forward).

Of course, there are other ways in which I provide predictive analyses and forecasts that may require time, but eventually, many of them will tend to arrive at destination. In this following unusual example, there were two bearish targets that were hit on 11 JUN and 12 JUN 2014, respectively with a shared forecast on 04 JUN. Yet, there was also a ("antipodal") target above whose forecast was released on the same day as the first two (04 JUN 2014), and eventually hit on 25 AUG 2014. This was one of the most unusual forecast as it took both the model and a proprietary pattern to define all these targets.


(... cont'd ... See Predictive analysis and forecasting for this chart within the discussion thread, immediately following ... )


David Alcindor - Predictive Analysis & Forecasting - Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
... cont'd ...

PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING

Now, off to this current chart, where on this Saturday, August 30th 2014, price shows that market closed this Friday at 1.11506.

The following targets are defined using the same predictive analyses and forecasting methods as before:

1 - TG-1 = 1.12272 - 30 AUG 2014

THEN:

2 - TG-Lo = 1.10946 - 30 AUG 2014

THEN:

3 - TG-2 = 1.15084 - 30 AUG 2014

THEN:

4 - TG-Hi = 1.19207 - 30 AUG 2014


Here too, the anticipated pattern of price development is unusual, as it calls for a specific "TG-Lo" value before price is expected to resume is ascension. You will notice that the TG-Lo is coming quite close (but not touching) the price inflection reached on 04 FEB 2014 at 1.109459 (vs. 1.10946, which is within acceptable range of error to suspect that they will match if price were to confirm this predictive analysis/forecast).


OVERALL:

Net BULLISH directional bias for the most medium and long-term, with a limited downside in the most immediate term.

In closing, I would like to mention that many of the tools used in the process of casting a value into the blank computer screen depends on off-screen analyses, but also on-screen confirmation using patterns and hidden geometries. If you are interest in such a work, I recommend that you read from such authors as Ashraf Laidi for a robust mental picturing of intermarket analysis, as well as consider the incredible work of Connie Brown, whose complexity in her use of traditional Elliott Wave, Gann, cycles and other hidden geometries will show you how far down the rabbit hole you might tumble and fall.

Feel free to post your ideas and method, share these analyses with due credits, and refer friends and colleagues to my charts if you believe they may be of curious value to them.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predicitive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
$AUDNZD/Daily: Triple-Zig-Zag (W-X-Y-XX-Z) possible configuration within a nascent bullish channel:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
The Triple Zig-Zag is an Elliott Wave corrective pattern (i.e. moves in the opposite direction of the main trend, thus here, it moves up against the dominant downtrend).

Of the corrective patterns, there are two main categories: Sharps and Sideways:

1 - SHARPS: One in which the counter-move will have Point-W (start of the correction) pointing in the direction of the counter-trend, with a succession of points typically rising from one another (i.e.: W-to-Y-to-Z and X-to-XX would typically plot in successively higher relative position, such that Wave-Z ends up at a higher level than W in a bullish correction.

AND

2 - SIDEWAYS: One in which point X and XX will remain at a similar level, thus forming a base while points W, Y, and Z may typically retain their higher positions from one another.

Following is an example I provided sometimes ago:


Corrections: Sharps vs. Sideways:

snapshot



Note that the internal waves between each of these points are corrective as well ("COR"), such that they remains linked by a COR-COR-COR-COR-COR pattern as well - In fact, except for simple Zig-Zags (IMP-COR-IMP) and Flats (COR-COR-IMP), there is no impulsive ("IMP") internal construct for the higher-complexity Zig-Zags (i.e.: Double-ZZ, Triple-ZZ) and Flats (Double-3, Triple-3). Once you have this simplified internal construct in mind, they tend to jump out quite clearly out of the field ... Remember, they will be found during a correction, or a pause, opposing a dominant trend.

David Alcindor
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Traditional EW is mind boggling...Weren't you using the TS Hennesy terminology?
How would you convert the count in this case to that?
I'd give it a shot, it's a great exercise. :D
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I was in fact building a Hennessy count and adding a few of my refinement to define reversals.

T.S. Hennessy has only one book and one forum, which I read through and through, and none of the refinements I have added on his studies can be found. A lot of what I have refined has to do with further simplifying the wave counts, and gaining ensuring results that what we have is indeed what is.

Posting the Hennessy alternate wave counts now, with a little Je-Ne-Sais-Quoi of mine. Let me know if it helps (it has to do with establishing a rule for reversal, which is really a very simple structural analysis way of looking at it) ... Next post in this thread.

Thanks.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks, I've read the forums and the book, but they tend to be confusing. Your architectural/visual method for simplification has helped a great deal with my counts. Still learning though, if I come up with a way of getting to the definitive swing pivot after a full 5/V/v/5 whatever count I'll be stoked. :D
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Great. Let me know how I can help. I am moving the "lessons" along to include more of the occult geometries, by highlighting areas with colors. If that helps, do let me know as well.

Over the past months, I have progressively discussed and demonstrated momental lines (different from channels), then moved on to structural analysis, using prior highs and lows, then skimmed over basic Elliott Wave patterns (especially the corrective ones, because once you catch a correction -which is short-lived and simpler by virtue of its ZZ internal construct - it will then bring you back into a generous impulse. Then we recently started to look at T.S. Hennessy's work, and progressively added my own refinement. So, this brings us to this week. More to come.

David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Here we are looking at Mr. T.S. Hennessy's alternative Elliott Wave count, with a few technical notes within the chart to help define a probable reversal:

$AUDNZD-Daily: ALternate Elliott Wave Count & Market Reversal Using Simple Structural Analysis:
snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Brilliant...thanks.
+1 Reply
Victor.Y.F 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yes, the small Cycle is ending soon could retrace 50% of XX-Z. Bigger Cycle ( monthly) is still under control.
+1 Reply