Before I gladly answer a request for a medium-term and short term predictive analysis and forecasting for this AUDNZD pair, I would like to caution the trader by saying two things about the purpose and manner in which I render the predictive and forecasting values.
First: My predictive analyses and forecasts are educational - All of I offer is for advanced trades who have an already well-established habit of "planning their trade, then trading their plan". I am glad that it may be enjoyed by some as an added weight in the confidence they already have gained in their own practice, but the real purpose is purely educational and intellectual.
Second: My predictive analyses and forecast do NOT use pivots - I was recently asked why I do not show pivots in the analyses. The answer is simple: The values that are derived from the predictive/forecasting model are defined in terms of direction and strength outside of the price field. Meaning that a vector with confirmed direction and relative length is defined before I even lay eyes on a chart - That's quantitative analysis at its best.
As unreal as it may sound, in fact, my results tend to instead define future pivots, rather than be defined by former ones. Here is a perfect supportive example for this claim (which happens to be on the same AUDNZD) - Simply click on the arrow within the price field, and see where price leads you as it moves forward. Now, click that arrow a few more times, and see how that level has turned into a pivot for future price development.
That trade was released on 21 MAR 2014, and carried the following profile: Entry = 1.0637 Stop-Loss = 1.05747 Target = 1.09086 Reward-to-Risk = 4.4:1 Hit Dead-On on 16 APR 2014 (continued to act as a significant pivot moving forward).
Of course, there are other ways in which I provide predictive analyses and forecasts that may require time, but eventually, many of them will tend to arrive at destination. In this following unusual example, there were two bearish targets that were hit on 11 JUN and 12 JUN 2014, respectively with a shared forecast on 04 JUN. Yet, there was also a ("antipodal") target above whose forecast was released on the same day as the first two (04 JUN 2014), and eventually hit on 25 AUG 2014. This was one of the most unusual forecast as it took both the model and a proprietary pattern to define all these targets.
(... cont'd ... See Predictive analysis and forecasting for this chart within the discussion thread, immediately following ... )
David Alcindor - Predictive Analysis & Forecasting - Denver, Colorado - USA
Hi David,
Is AUDNZD has formed Bullish KOD? I donot much know about KOD. Today I hava viewed your published ideas on different pairs of last 10 months and has found you models based on KOD.
tradingview.com/v/97uuv8qw/ Waiting for your reply and guidance as always.
kmk.msp
4xForecaster
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Hello @KMK.msp - The KoD is a triple-base (i.e.: triple-bottom or triple-top) pattern. Not one I recommend, but it has a fair probability of reversing at the base.
The pattern you have shown has a rising base. For this reason, it does not correspond to the definition of a KoD. as drawn.
However, the smaller arch to the left of the one you drew does offer a nice line-up with the rest of the price action, all lining up to a KoD.
The Stoch looks prepared to dip below its low threshold, adding credence to the possibility that it might reverse on cue.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
23 SEP 2014 - Update:
From Twitter:
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AUD vs. NZD curled around target; RSI remains unanswered; Expect added consolidation ahead
PS: Note that every day and sometimes several times a day, added details and technical commentaries are made of this and other charts in the "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Chat Room" without necessarily figuring here. Feel free to join, read lessons and technical pearls I share there with other inquisitive traders - David
kmk.msp
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RSI rebound from support to go long now. Want your suggestion as student @David
SIMPLE QUESTIONS TO ASK YOURSELF - AND YOU ALREADY KNOW THE ANSWER:
1 - What is price telling you right now?
ANS: Price continues to carve high-highs and higher-lows
= BULLISH
2 - What is your set of indicator telling you right now?
ANS: RSI and CCI both remain in sync with price over same span of time where price carved higher-highs and higher-lows.
3 - What significant divergence did occur between RSI and CCI which signaled price to rally?
ANS: ... Anyone? ...
4 - What sort of divergence is RSI currently showing?
ANS: ... Anyone? ...
(Kindly, post a chart in the window with your answer - I won't open any link - Thanks!)
AUDNZD, price at b less than a but in RSI b' is greater than a' suggesting bears are loosing momentum so reversal is most probable. There is negative divergence.
4xForecaster
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@KMK.msp - Yes, there is divergence, but this bullish divergence has less to do with indication of an imminent move than the divergence that exists right at this level between RSI and CCI.
The fact that CCI was able to carve a lower low compared to RSI right at this level is extremely important feature of what's to come. I suppose you have probably learned that such bullish divergence is associated with an imminent rally, but this is perhaps the most widely erroneously shared concept with RSI. In this case, it may be associated with a price rallying, but the divergence itself stands independent of this price action outcome.
- Above answers Question #3
The answer to Question #4 is "Positive Divergence", which is seen in RSI carving a lower low right as price carves a higher-high - You can see this occur between the 23rd hour and 12:00 - In this case, price posted a double-bottom, which works as well as if it had carved a higher-high, as long as the corresponding RSI points make a lower low - This (+) Div. is a much rarer and more reliable predictive feature of price action.
"New Zealand holds rate, sees further rise "at later stage"
Source: CentralBankNews.info
Link: dlvr.it/7nQvN5"
David Alcindor