AUD Unemployment still remain highs / RBNZ rates on hold
Technical :
We have just hit the daily down trend line. From here we expect selling and break of strong support.
Fundamentals :
AUD
Suprise in Employment change +15.6k vs +15k but still does not change the bigger view.
Unemployment still remain highs. The key data for me was participation rate which fell off.
In general with the data that has come in previous weeks/months - you notice there is sluggish economy starting to form.
Economist Daniel Martin:
Says unemployment has not peaked
"The bigger picture is still that Australia's economy is struggling to create jobs, and we still expect
the unemployment rate to rise to 7 per cent by the end of the year"
View of most economists is they expect further easing from the RBA in the first half of the year
RBNZ
1) Wheeler stated there is no reason they would be following Australia or Canada and cut rates.
2) RBNZ - Monetary policy still expansionary
3) Wheeler is happy where NZD dollar VS US dollar
4) RBNZ rates on hold.
Reuters survey now:
10 of 13 economists see no Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate move before Q1 2016
11 of 13 economists see RBNZ's next move to be a rate rise, two see cuts from mid-2015
RBNZ seen raising official cash rate to 3.75 pct in june 2016, 4.00 pct by sept 2016
We have just hit the daily down trend line. From here we expect selling and break of strong support.
Fundamentals :
AUD
Suprise in Employment change +15.6k vs +15k but still does not change the bigger view.
Unemployment still remain highs. The key data for me was participation rate which fell off.
In general with the data that has come in previous weeks/months - you notice there is sluggish economy starting to form.
Economist Daniel Martin:
Says unemployment has not peaked
"The bigger picture is still that Australia's economy is struggling to create jobs, and we still expect
the unemployment rate to rise to 7 per cent by the end of the year"
View of most economists is they expect further easing from the RBA in the first half of the year
RBNZ
1) Wheeler stated there is no reason they would be following Australia or Canada and cut rates.
2) RBNZ - Monetary policy still expansionary
3) Wheeler is happy where NZD dollar VS US dollar
4) RBNZ rates on hold.
Reuters survey now:
10 of 13 economists see no Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate move before Q1 2016
11 of 13 economists see RBNZ's next move to be a rate rise, two see cuts from mid-2015
RBNZ seen raising official cash rate to 3.75 pct in june 2016, 4.00 pct by sept 2016
