workingtraders
Short

AUD Unemployment still remain highs / RBNZ rates on hold

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
223 12 8
Technical :

We have just hit the daily down trend line . From here we expect selling and break of strong support.


Fundamentals :

AUD

Suprise in Employment change +15.6k vs +15k but still does not change the bigger view.
Unemployment still remain highs. The key data for me was participation rate which fell off.
In general with the data that has come in previous weeks/months - you notice there is sluggish economy starting to form.

Economist Daniel Martin:

Says unemployment has not peaked
"The bigger picture is still that Australia's economy is struggling to create jobs, and we still expect
the unemployment rate to rise to 7 per cent by the end of the year"

View of most economists is they expect further easing from the RBA in the first half of the year

RBNZ

1) Wheeler stated there is no reason they would be following Australia or Canada and cut rates.
2) RBNZ - Monetary policy still expansionary
3) Wheeler is happy where NZD dollar VS US dollar            
4) RBNZ rates on hold.

Reuters survey now:

10 of 13 economists see no Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate move before Q1 2016
11 of 13 economists see RBNZ's next move to be a rate rise, two see cuts from mid-2015
RBNZ seen raising official cash rate to 3.75 pct in june 2016, 4.00 pct by sept 2016
IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
Support makes sense here. Nice move off the highest low in that weak rally...Let there be trend.
+2 Reply
workingtraders IvanLabrie
2 years ago
its ready for a big move down
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO workingtraders
2 years ago
To parity!
I'll try to get on this trend.
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Let's do this:

snapshot
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
*Both sell stop under the low, as well as that retracement entry of yours. 1.25% risk each should do.
+1 Reply
workingtraders IvanLabrie
2 years ago
you could also wait for a small retracement . As long as the highs it created before the sell off don't get violated. You are good to go.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO workingtraders
2 years ago
Indeed, or wait for it to cross the support below, which it probably will.
The perfect entry already happened, at the retrace from that bigger range downbar.
Reply
FullTimeTrader
2 years ago
Good fundamental information, but we must consider that this pair is oversold. The rate news had positive impact on AUD also. I expect a double bottom to enter the market long....
Reply
workingtraders FullTimeTrader
2 years ago
Valid point. I disagree with the view being that NZD will strengthen quicker than AUD. Causing this pair to fall. AUD may strengthen against JPY or other weaker pairs. But the NZD strength will keep this pair pinned down. I do eventually believe with RBA rate cuts pending - AUD will drag this pair down breaking the double bottom.
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO workingtraders
2 years ago
There's no such thing as oversold...look at the Euro.
Reply
workingtraders IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Still making its way lower. Slow but steady!
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
This one was great...
Reply
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