It looks like AUDNZD is not done falling yet, possibly heading for the support level at about 1.075. That's pretty much where it coincides with the up sloping lower border of the channel, as well as the maximum excursion line of the red down fork, The AUD is one of the weakest currencies, not as weak as the yen, but much weaker than the sterling. The NZD is quite strong, certainly not as strong as the USD, but stronger than the EUR. However, the momentum analysis seems to be in favor of the AUD (well oversold and soon likely to strengthen), so taking advantage of this situation requires as usual good timing, patience, and stalking a perfect entry at higher levels. ----------- Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
Will you being going long on target? Or are you expecting fairly quick fall further to the huge trend line at 1.04655? Will be great if you share any ideas you have!
ForceFollower
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A good question. Anyway, going long here would not be validated by my strategy rules. If anything, I'd rather go short. However, I keep going short in AUDUSD, so I'm fine with that position and I will be staying on the sidelines in AUDNZD, esp. now that I've profitably closed it.
HexVex
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Sticking to strategy and discipline is a good idea for keeping profits rather than shedding them away:) It's interesting you closed already and not thinking of going long at target. Do you follow a particular strategy you studied/read, or is it something you developed yourself?
ForceFollower
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I've developed it myself. It's a strategy you won't find in any book. Although I've read (and still read) many books on trading, I could never follow just one strategy. I simply had to trade the way that would suit me, using the best methods I've learnt and the probabilities I've come up with. Anyway, the most important general tenets of successful trading are:
- realize you are the weakest element of your strategy - an undisciplined trader can spoil the best strategy in the world,
- have your rules in place and follow each of them at any moment - your every rule should be the source of your trading edge, so it's worth millions of dollars - it's really worth following; all of your rules should be contained on one side of a sheet of paper, so you can read them every morning before trading; when you violate your rule, you make a mistake; if you have no rules, you don't know, when you made a mistake, thus everything you do is a mistake;
- know the odds of your trades, eg. based on statistical data you've collected; every trade should be within the confines of the rules and be based on the known (to you) probability of its success.
Why not go long AUDNZD? Because it's still in a down trend. Perhaps it will turn out to be a win, but I've still got higher odds going long USDJPY and short AUDUSD. Their trends are much more robust than AUDNZD's.