The AUDNZD chart currently shows the formation of a XABCD Harmonic Shark Bearish Pattern, indicating a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). Additionally, there is a hidden bearish divergence, suggesting that the current uptrend is likely to reverse into a downtrend. Furthermore, on the daily chart, the price has just touched a strong daily resistance zone, which also serves as an Order Block (OB). This action confirms the bearish OB and all these indicators collectively suggest a shift in the trend to a downtrend.
In technical analysis, a Harmonic Shark pattern is a specific type of harmonic pattern that signals potential trend reversals. The completion of this pattern at the PRZ indicates an area where traders might anticipate a change in the current price direction.
A hidden bearish divergence occurs when the price forms higher highs, but the corresponding indicator (such as the Relative Strength Index or RSI) shows lower highs. This suggests underlying weakness in the upward momentum, potentially leading to a reversal.
The concept of an Order Block (OB) refers to a significant level of support or resistance where institutional traders have previously entered the market. When the price approaches and reacts to this level, it can confirm the strength of the OB.
On the 1-hour time frame, also there is a hidden bearish divergence, and the Previous Day High (PDH) liquidity has been taken. Whenever the PDH is breached, a pullback to the downtrend is often observed. Additionally, the trend line on the 1-hour time frame has been broken, and the price has retested this trend line. According to Dow Theory, these indications suggest a shift in price behavior from forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) to forming lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).
On the daily time frame, the price has tested a strong resistance zone and is rejecting from its peak resistance level bearish OB. Overall, the daily chart appears bearish, indicating a potential trend change. Additionally, there is a trend line liquidity that needs to be breached for the price to move in either direction.
In summary, the combination of the Harmonic Shark Bearish Pattern, hidden bearish divergence, and interaction with a higher time frame to lower time frame strong daily resistance zone (Order Block) suggests a strong indication of a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend in the AUDNZD pair. However, it's essential to conduct comprehensive analysis and consider other factors before making trading decisions.
Trade active
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Sell Limit Triggered
Comment
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Small -30pip sl hit.
Trade active
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The setup is still valid. You can place the sell limit again as mentioned in the chart with the SL and TP set to the same levels.
Fundamental Consideration: a RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting is occurring this Tuesday that will have an effect on AUD on monetary policy, including decisions on interest rates. These meetings typically occur monthly, with the outcomes closely watched by financial markets, economists, and the public because they can have significant impacts on currency values, interest rates, and the overall economy.
The outlook for the AU remains highly uncertain. While there are encouraging signs that inflation is moderating, the economic outlook remains uncertain. The December quarter national accounts data confirmed growth has slowed. Household consumption growth remains particularly weak amid high inflation and the rise in interest rates. After recent declines, real incomes have stabilised and are expected to grow from here, which is expected to support growth in consumption later in the year.
Meanwhile, growth in unit labour costs remains very high. It has begun to moderate slightly as measured productivity growth has picked up in the past two quarters but whether this trend will be sustained is uncertain.
The central forecasts are for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3 per cent in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026.
I agree a reversal is on the horizon
Axrage
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Does the analysis still valid?
awaisulabdeen
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@Axrage, Yes, the setup is still valid. The new sell limit is at 1.08600 with the Stop Loss (SL) as mentioned in the chart.