This is my view about the possible and highly probable move on this pair that will follow in the near future.
I am expecting/my analysis is showing Alternative 2 but am prepared for the possibility that it will break out sooner and in this case will follow Alternative 1. In case of Alternative 2 I will look for a short term sell setup as price action will retest the yellow trend line and go for a 3rd impulse down
Approximately the same setup is setting on the daily TF as well, so I will consider keeping a position open for a longer period of time as well.
Please do not follow my entry suggestion blindly since I am always adapting it according to the actual price action. You have to have a well tested strategy with good money management for entering such a trade.
Have a nice day!
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This is the trade we want:
Comments
Ranothil
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Wow you nailed it haha :D Curious to know how you picked a target.
Koryphaeen
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Yes, I think it was obvious enough that it will do exactly like that :D I usually estimate my targets according to the extent of the previous impulse and the deepness of the correction which follows it. In this particular case I can say with high confidence that the target, 1.089, will eventually be hit. It is possible that it will go much further than that, but once it will be in that area, look for hints of reversal or continuation. ;)
Ranothil
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Brilliant! Yea I got in on alternative two after RBA, great trade! Thanks.
Koryphaeen
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Well done! I am also in this one, picked almost the bottom (yeah, that was luck...) ;) you should be at least in BE now, if not, you can move SL to around 1.05 for a bit of profit if it comes back unexpectedly, and watch it fly and your account grow... :D
Ranothil
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Yep this one looks golden. Funny how fundamentals have to bow to long term structure, but not necessarily short term structure, which is why I took this one! They cut rates and it literally spiked down there for a few minutes and then ran the other way :D Then the fundamentalists have to come up with some excuse as to why the market reacted like this haha. Thanks!
Ranothil
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What do you think of this?
Koryphaeen
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Usually the 2618 trade, promoted by some traders in an inappropriate manner, totally disregards the normal behavior of wave structures. It works ONLY in those situations when it is in accordance with the wave structures and their behavior, which can be predicted 95% of the time. This is not that case, in my opinion. Wave structures are very simple to understand: after a first impulse there will be a consolidation/corrective structure and there will be at least another impulse (or two, when it is a 5 wave structure). In my opinion, we had a first impulse here on the hourly chart (but on the daily too) and the corrective structure following it is over, since it broke out and went up like a rocket. Therefore it is highly unlikely that this setup you are showing is correct, there is only a 5% chance that it will go down and break the structure like in the chart. But, we are talking about trading, so you never know... ;) I wouldn't bet money on this setup though... Actually I am in a long position and I will hold it until I can, and will add to it at any given opportunity (after smaller corrections are over; I started with 2 standard lots and I have 4 already in profit, added 2 more :D )
Koryphaeen
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Anyway, you should be in profit right now (in worst case scenario in BE), so don't worry, if it turns down like in the chart (5% chance), that's it, no big deal, there are plenty of other setups out there waiting... :D
Ranothil
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Thank you! I am still learning wave theory and I agree it is the most powerful trading strategy, but I follow a variety of traders just to make sure :) It seems to me other systems are only successful when they happen to coincide with wave theory. Thank you for your support ! Yea I have 1 standard lot long. And I'm def. above BE so not worried.
Koryphaeen
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Indeed, wave theory is the most powerful tool you can have in trading, IF you learnt it correctly! I myself was trading successfully before, but after I joined the group of Anil Mangal and took his course (a great, professional guy with a great, well organised group he built with many exceptional traders within) my knowledge has simplified to only the necessary, I left my old bad habits behind and my trading got better, like unbelievably better. ;)