We are pretty much on top of this pair since the consolidation started. Be careful not to buy to soon. I like to see another leg lower before the major reversal. For previous post and context see link below.
Guy's keep an eye on this pair, it has exactly done as we analyzed for months. I posted why we had to wait over and over again and we finally see a first attempt to continue higher.
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We saw a sharp reversal overnight which stopped out my pending buy at break-even. However this will provide an even better buy opportunity once this last bearish impulse settles. Only a break below 1.0019 will invalidate the long term buy set-up. Fundamentally I expect that the NZD will weaken soon and consider the recent news as noise for now. The technical's suggest the same. We just have to be patient for now. Updates will follow!
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andreas1
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Your analysis and explanation are so professional and clear that i really learn a lot from you!
thank you very much for sharing and show your thoughts... in this pair I really think we need to see the up movement very soon... we are now very close to the 78.6 ratio that is really good time to reversal...
andreas1
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thank you! nice job! hope you will rise a lot of pips :) i am waiting for buy set up after consolidation...
ezodisy
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I think you've charted this huge flat very well. Well done.
TimStuyts
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Thank you, if this count is correct and we see another impulse higher from here I will keep buying after each consolidation. These kind of set-ups on the higher time frames only happen a few times a year but can easily double your account or more by not risking more than 2% in total. So I'll try to update as much as possible. My total risk exposure NEVER exceeds 2% so we have to be precise when adding to the buys but we will manage that. For now I need confirmation that the reversal is for real. Good trading to you.
Subjugal
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Do you inform us, when you see confirmation for reversal and big move up. One other question: Is your green arrow up to 1.18 possible level, that could be reached or did you just draw it that far for showing, that it´s a big move? Thanks for the brilliant analysis.
TimStuyts
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Yes I will inform my followers by means of an update. I won't post new analyses all the time because this way it is easier to see the context. The Green arrow shows my minimum target in case of an A-B-C up (instead of an 1-2-3-4-5). First conservative target will be previous high around 1.15, then green arrow around 1.18 but likely even higher.
Subjugal
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So if I understand you right, the C-Leg will be the long move. I like the idea. Thanks for your answer.
TimStuyts
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Yes the strong bullish move will either be a wave C or a wave 3.
Subjugal
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What do you mean with "Fundamentally I expect that the NZD will weaken soon and consider the recent news as noise for now." Is it about AUD and NZD parity or rate hike of NZD, that is unlikely to come?
TimStuyts
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I can't go into too much detail about my long term fundamental view regarding the NZ housing market and the Nations interest rate policy here on Tradingview. I will do that on my website where I post and teach top down analyses based on fundamentals, technical's and market dynamic (how central banks act, why and on what levels). Both fundamentals and technical's matter in Forex and that's why sometimes a structure got confirmation and sometimes not. Nothing works a 100% although structure shows the high probability bias, nevertheless understanding the whole concept of the market is what makes a trader consistent and profitable over 90% of the time. It is easy to say that someone doesn't believe in something (like many analysts do here on TV as well) and anyone can draw a simple pattern. But keep in mind that not everyone who calls himself a teacher actually understands this business (a doctor needs a degree but apparently everyone can be a teacher without any kind of degree or background). That among other reasons is why 90% of the retail traders are losing money. Tradingview is a fantastic service for retail traders but unfortunately also a good example that this business is more often than not run by salesman and marketeers, not by professionals. I don't want to offend anyone (those who are for real won't be) but both in my professional career and when I started posting here I see things that are kind of shocking and don't make any sense. I also get several private messages last week of so called top analysts on TV that really don't make sense neither. (so sorry if I seem frustrated, I don't mean it like that;-) but try to make a point)So sorry for not answering your question but I rather don't give an answer than confuse traders and I hope this explains why. Key for the AUDNZD is that my bias is bullish in the long run and this is not only based on technical's. That's why I mentioned it and if I'm wrong I'm most likely not in the trade and adjust accordingly.
thank you very much for sharing and show your thoughts... in this pair I really think we need to see the up movement very soon... we are now very close to the 78.6 ratio that is really good time to reversal...