AUD/NZD approaching major reversal point
AUD/NZD is approaching a major reversal point that we have identified on the monthly chart (although it's visible on all charts, of course - the monthly just provides clarity!).
The notes in the image should explain all of it, but please let me know if there are any questions.
The most important thing with trend reversals is to wait for confirmation. Don't try and pick the bottom (or top), wait until reversal (or continuation) is undeniable, and THEN enter the trade.
Given the strength of the trend line (which, unlike supply/demand zones, gets stronger with time), I'd expect price to reverse back upwards. We are, however, in a long-term wedge, so don't expect price to reach the previous high. I'd be looking to enter on confirmation of reversal, and then take 75% profit at the first supply zone, and fully exit if price reaches the second supply zone. We then wait to reassess what is happening before re-entering the market. It's worth mentioning that I wouldn't hold a single trade over a month or more period (e.g. I don't trade the monthly charts). I swing trade, and generally enter based on the 4-6 hourly charts. The importance of the larger time frames is to determine a general trend (and therefore frame of reference and trade bias), and to ensure that I now exit my bearish trades (I've been bearish trades ONLY since the last reversal), and wait for confirmation. I don't want to get caught in a rapid bounce (or continuation), and would prefer to wait for the trend to develop either way.
Please let me know thoughts and suggestions in the comments below.
I'll keep this updated, but it's likely going to be a trade that develops over the next 2-4 weeks.
Cheers and good luck,
RJR
The notes in the image should explain all of it, but please let me know if there are any questions.
The most important thing with trend reversals is to wait for confirmation. Don't try and pick the bottom (or top), wait until reversal (or continuation) is undeniable, and THEN enter the trade.
Given the strength of the trend line (which, unlike supply/demand zones, gets stronger with time), I'd expect price to reverse back upwards. We are, however, in a long-term wedge, so don't expect price to reach the previous high. I'd be looking to enter on confirmation of reversal, and then take 75% profit at the first supply zone, and fully exit if price reaches the second supply zone. We then wait to reassess what is happening before re-entering the market. It's worth mentioning that I wouldn't hold a single trade over a month or more period (e.g. I don't trade the monthly charts). I swing trade, and generally enter based on the 4-6 hourly charts. The importance of the larger time frames is to determine a general trend (and therefore frame of reference and trade bias), and to ensure that I now exit my bearish trades (I've been bearish trades ONLY since the last reversal), and wait for confirmation. I don't want to get caught in a rapid bounce (or continuation), and would prefer to wait for the trend to develop either way.
Please let me know thoughts and suggestions in the comments below.
I'll keep this updated, but it's likely going to be a trade that develops over the next 2-4 weeks.
Cheers and good luck,
RJR
Comment:
I mention above that I expect price to reverse up, and that still holds. However, in the chart notes I talk about a potential weakening of the demand zone. So, the takeaway for you should be to wait for confirmation either way. Then you won't miss out :) (and more importantly, you won't lose money).
Comment:
This one bore fruit. The reversal occurred almost bang on the monthly trend line, resulting in 150+ pips profit once we waited for confirmation. There's no real reason to think that price won't continue (with the usual zig zag action) up to the upward trend line (1.12000 area).
Monitor your chosen indicators, and ride the waves. The most important thing now is that we're looking for bullish trades until otherwise confirmed. All trading strategies suffer in transition markets, so be wary of those.
Good luck :)
Monitor your chosen indicators, and ride the waves. The most important thing now is that we're looking for bullish trades until otherwise confirmed. All trading strategies suffer in transition markets, so be wary of those.
Good luck :)
Comment:
A solid 300+ pip movement over the last few months. If (like me), you've been riding the swings on this one, then be aware that weakness has entered the trend over the last few days. I'll be waiting for confirmation on where this is heading.
Comment:
AUDNZD is heading back down. Expect it to find proper support again on the monthly trend line (around 1.05400). Until then I'll be short!