EWForecast

Weekly Elliottwave $AUD/NZD: Low can Be In Place

FX_IDC:AUDNZD   AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR
86 9 1
Decline from 1.3692 is taking the form of Expanded / Irregular FLAT (a)-(b)-(c). Wave (a) unfolded in triple corrective structure wxyz and ended at 1.0439. Wave (b) unfolded in double corrective structure wxy and ended at 1.3795. Wave (c) is in progress and unfolded in 5 waves diagonal, where wave I ended at 1.238, wave II ended at 1.3276, wave III             ended at 1.0494, wave IV ended at 1.1304, and wave V is in progress and ideally reach 0.982. This level is when wave I = wave V and also where wave (c) = 1.236 extension of wave (a) in the Expanded / Irregular FLAT structure.

The view remains valid as far as wave IV at 13039 pivot holds. Alternative view suggests wave V of (c) is already complete at 1.002, and the pair has started multi-month / multi-year rally.

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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Hi, Thanks for sharing.

I note that you have labelled waves ((W)) and ((x)) following wave IV with another swing low to come to complete (c). How does all this price action since the IV top fit in when we should be looking out for 5 wave impulse down from IV top.

Secondly to suggest that wave 5 might have completed already also look rather confusing since if that was the case we fine what might be minor wave 3 of 5 looks shorter.

So would be interested in your comments on both of the above.
Reply
EWForecast
2 years ago
Hello Dan... thanks for the comment. The 5 waves decline is proposed to be in diagonal, not impulse. In diagonal, we can have 3 waves subdivision. Wave V can be complete as we can count 3 waves subdivision between IV and V if we want to. Wave V has also met the minimum requirement that is 1.236 inverse of wave IV. The ideal target however remains to be 0.98 - 0.985 area where wave V = wave I and wave (c) = 1.236 extension of wave (a) in the Expanded Flat.
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DanV MOD EWForecast
2 years ago
I understand, but if we have ending diagonal I think you will likely find that wave iii of V is shortest which make it awkward to count is as ending diagonal. That is the main issue with this decline from IV to last low.

Hence something else is represented by the price decline from IV and not necessarily wave V. Nor would this look right even if we take your ((W)), ((X)) and ((Y)) to your (c) as indicated on your chart to represent wave V.

May be I am missing something here.
Reply
EWForecast DanV
2 years ago
In a diagonal, wave V is subdivided in 3 waves, so there's no wave iii of V. When you said wave iii of V, you are assuming wave V is subdivided in 5 waves. In diagonal, wave I has 3 waves internal subdivision, wave II has 3 waves internal subdivision, wave III has 3 waves internal subdivison, wave IV has 3 waves internal subdivision, and wave V has 3 waves internal subdivision.
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EWForecast EWForecast
2 years ago
Structure is 3-3-3-3-3 in diagonal
Reply
DanV MOD EWForecast
2 years ago
I am familiar with ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3.

In my chart I am attempting to label this, where if correct the wave (v) of V might be truncated (see my chart). However, the subsequent move of the low do not support 5 wave impulsive move up of larger multi months or year move to the upside.

If we find that the wave V low has not been formed and as you suggest possible wave (c) for form at lower level then question arises is how is the inner counts labelled from your wave IV high? How does your waves ((W)), ((X)) and ((Y)) fit in?

Surely you are not suggesting that the entire move from Feb 2011 to last low is ending diagonal as I think larger waves I and III appear to have valid 5 wave internal structure.

So there is definitely something not right with the counts as they stand and some else needs to be considered. I have been agonising over this for sometime and now do have possible outlook but wish to see how you explain yours first.
snapshot
Reply
EWForecast DanV
2 years ago
Yes, that's what I am suggesting it's ending diagonal from Feb 2011 if the pair makes another low. So ((W)) is the (iii) in your chart, and (i) and (ii) in your chart are the 3 waves subdivision of ((W)). Impulse also looks good from Feb 2011, I don't deny it. If V is already in place at 1.002, the rally from the low for me doesn't have to be in 5 wave impulse. 5 waves decline from Feb 2011 is wave c of an expanded flat.
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DanV MOD EWForecast
2 years ago
OK I agree. If the low already formed or yet to form becomes part of wave C of expanded flat then what should follow after that is complete reversal hence one would look for impulsive move to the upside. But if we looks at the current move it does not seem to support that so far.

Similarly if we have wave 1 decline of Feb 2011 high then 3-3-3-3-3 ending diagonal is not likely in my view. so that still leave the question unanswered for now.

So we need to see if that clarifies with further price data.

Well thank you for your reply and time.
Reply
EWForecast DanV
2 years ago
You are welcome. I don't think it needs impulsive moves to the upside. An expanded flat from 2000 can be a part of WXY where wave c of the flat completed wave W leg or the X leg. Hence let's say if W leg is an expanded flat, we are looking for an X leg now, and an X leg can be any corrective structure. X leg can subdivide in double correction (w)-(x)-(y) or subdivide in triple correction (w)-(x)-(y)-(z) for example. Thus no need for impulsive moves in my humble opinion.
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