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Short

$AUD v $NZD - Edu-Trade: Short @1.09405 | #aussie #kiwi #Forex

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
1698 26 29
a year ago
QUICK ANALYSIS - This is an educational trade ("Edu-Trade"), so do the due and cover your assets responsibly.

snapshot


Entry at 1.09405 = "House-Cleaning" (Prop Pattern)

Stop-Loss at prior structural top = 1.13471

Targets based on Predictive/Forecasting Model:

1 - TG-1 = 1.05072 - 17 AUG 2015

2 - TG-Lo = 1.02807 - 17 AUG 2015

AND

3 - TG-Lox = 1.01341 - 17 AUG 2015.

Note that TG-1 has already been hit based on analysis released this summer (See link below: "$AUDNZD - LESSON: Geo             Roots ... ") for a detail of the analysis.

Note also that a prior analysis was released with a lower TG-Lo, which belonged to a different timeframe ... We will get that that one with some revision if and once price gets to the Watch Line ("WL") line.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


----- Follow me on ...
Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
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a year ago
Comment: 17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price draws out a potential Geo:

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David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: ... ADDENDUM ... Here is how the Geo appears in the 4-hour chart:

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David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

A break below the 1-3 Line would open floor to a bearish momentum:

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David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price tests 1-3 Line ... Not BACA yet:

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David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

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David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 19 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As we are looking at a mechanism of descent, consider this potential geometry and R/S levels:

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David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 19 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price moved as forecast, hit upper range and receded ... Bearish:

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David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 19 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

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David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 19 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Prior target now acting as R/S level, as price fell per forecast ... Bearish:

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David Alcindor
11 months ago
Comment: 08 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price continues to carve lower lows, here is a Wolfe Wave completion:
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At this point, I would keep an eye on the H4 and daily timeframes, since lower targets remain unanswered.

David Alcindor
10 months ago
Comment: 19 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Simple internal geometries - expressed as reciprocal ab = cd symmetries - are pointing to both bearish targets.

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David Alcindor
9 months ago
Comment: 01 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for this potential development ... Point-4 is typically "loose", so use your technical tolls to discern any reversal signals:
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Best,

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
I am intrigued by the 1.09622 on the upside. I have both eyes intent on this chart :).
Thanks again for sharing.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ananora23
a year ago
@ananora23 - You are very welcome, and think you for following. Much appreciated.

David
+1 Reply
ananora23 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Bingo!! hit the 1.0962 exactly....Hats off to you David!!! a m a z i n g precision. congrats. thanks for sharing!
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ananora23
a year ago
Thank you @ananora23 - David
+1 Reply
ChatchaiVong
a year ago
thank so much. stop lost?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ChatchaiVong
a year ago
Hello @ChatchaiVong - Are you familiar with Fibonacci extensions and the tool to modify these on TradingView (it is quite simple, but let me know if I can help) ... Basically, I use 1.414 as the value at which to set a SL from the levels that have a well-defined reversal level (such as this one at 1.09622), otherwise, I would tend to use a 1.414 of a 1.414.

Let me know if this is making sense?

My recommendation to that before you even enter a trade, define the amount of money you are willing to lose for that trade, and see that it means in relation to the whole. If you risk 1% of your entire asset, this means that you are willing to sustain 100 losses before eradicating your account. If you chose 5%, you are willing to trade and lose 20 times.

I recommend that the trade adjusts his/her risk based on this knowledge - Some base their trades on a psychological value, such as $50, $100, $500 or $2,500.00 dollar to lose - It may appear unreasonable, but it really has to do with the percentage that this dollar amount represents to the whole.

David
+2 Reply
tradingmaster
a year ago
I just posted a youtube video of my real time trading here:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCaKr67vg05EPa273C1nDpBA
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO tradingmaster
a year ago
Thank you @tradingmaster, I appreciate your contribution here, but I have had too many problems with links before. I stay within the TV community, and perhaps soon enough they will offer video capability. I have my own software, which I have not yet used for here, but used in teaching sessions. Perhaps this will be an added feature with secured links.

David
+1 Reply
kmk.msp
a year ago
My view also support your perfect predicting model...
AUDNZD WW PATTERN

kmk.msp
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
a year ago
Hello @kmk.msp - This WW/Geo is beautiful, ... but the Geo itself can also be deceiving: Be careful with that 2-3 Leg, as it appears to be quite straightforward, and thus not complex as it often is, my point being that sometimes, if will place a pseudo-Point-3 at your current one, whereas the actual will define itself - after much meandering - your current point-5. As drawn, I would expect it to work, but I have been had too many times before, that I have turned into a cautious Geo trader.

Still, looks like a very short-trade affirming set of technical circumstances!

David
+4 Reply
bk_sj 4xForecaster
a year ago
Loss cut 1.0980... orz.
Reply
URIFX
a year ago
Dear David, why did you count number 1 at the middle of bear trend? I believe you have your strong rationales there! Thanks
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO URIFX
11 months ago
Hello @URIFX ... So sorry for this very late reply. What defines Point-1 is not so much on the development of the prior price action, as much as the development of the following price action. What the WW and Geo demand is an alignment of Point-5 with the 1-3 Line, as well as a convergence of the 2-4 Line with the 1-3 Line, as did occur in the charts posted.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
11 months ago
... Once this geometric event occurs, then let price rise to and above Point-5, but take a position towards the 1-4 Line at the open of the bar following a close across the 1-3 Line ... This makes for a conservative, safe signal.

David
Reply
ccake28
10 months ago
Hi David. R u still in this trade? :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ccake28
10 months ago
Hello @ccake28 - Yes, this is a relatively protracted trade, so worth giving it time to do its meandering walk. Target remains intact and forecast in force.

David
+1 Reply
ccake28 4xForecaster
10 months ago
ok noted, thanks. Great analysis as always! :)
Reply
ccake28
10 months ago
Hi David. Any update on this pair?
Reply
itsheng
9 months ago
Hi David,

Is below WW worth considering? Thanks as always!

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Regards,
Sheng
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO itsheng
9 months ago
Hello @itsheng - Check out the new DAILY chart I just posted in the update section.

Remember that with the Wolfe Wave or Geo, Point-4 remains quite elusive.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
9 months ago
Watch for the 1.09250 as a probable level of resistance and reversal. If 1.09707 level is surpassed, then wait for a clearer sign of reversal.

David
+1 Reply
itsheng 4xForecaster
9 months ago
Much appreciated!
This is what's happening now.
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Reply
ewpnx1 PRO
8 months ago
Hello David, hope you're doing well, Would you please review the possibilities of this formation? Thanks in advance.
Reply
ewpnx1 PRO ewpnx1
8 months ago
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ewpnx1
8 months ago
Yes, this is one on-going trade.

Very nice!

Make sure to use the 2-4 Line parallel off of Point-3 to determine the possible extent of price adverse excursion if it were to form Point-5' ("five prime").


David
Reply
ewpnx1 PRO 4xForecaster
8 months ago
Thanks for your comments David, I never knew before how to derive 5' prime. It will definitely help me in future anaylis. Thanks
Reply
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