This is my short explanation: Analysis of demand-supply for the AUD and NZD currencies shows, that in the future there sholud be a stronger demand for AUD and weaker for NZD. We do not know what the market will do today or in the near future, will it notice it and will start to discount it, whether it will continue on the side of short positions. We rely on the probability of what is most likely and how much we can earn and how much we risk (probability of loss). Long positions are now more likely to be successful than short positions, given the Global Macro analysis.