Looking at the weekly chart, this market can go down to around 1.00340. What do you say
kiwiwalnut
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I see that PA for this pair will range after it finds the bottom maybe 1.022. Upper range 1.04. There is no way Wheeler will decrease rates with recent data and house prices still going up. Markets are yield hungry and Kiwi is slightly higher than Aussies right now. The fact that Australia data showing signs of progress with investments away from commodities will slowly build upward bias in AUD in the mid term. It will put up a fight and likely a slow grind down; likely to be in wave 3 down. If that wave count is right - then wave 3 will end at around 1.02 for corrective wave 4 to 1.04 before down to level you mentioned.
There will be market players that will try stick it to the Aussie and try push Kiwi to parity = 1.000, so will so PA darting down past 1.000 ever so briefly. Level you mention is good support level and likely where downward volatility will strike.
If it does reach 1.000 it will NOT stay for long for as much as I'd like to see the Kiwi pound the Aussie - fundamentals do not support it unless there is massive interest difference between RBA and RBNZ.
So for now - I'm waiting for 1.04 to see if shorts are still on. I repeat - **I believe Wheeler will not decrease rates at next announcement** and the Fed won;t be doing anything that will help the Kiwi drop