On a higher time frame this pair tends to move in a very distinctive back and forth pattern. I've been looking for the change in trend for a few months and this could be it. With today's RBNZ interest rate expected to stay the same all ears will be listening to the statement for future movement. Given the current set up on the 1H timescale it may be an ideal entry. Wait for the break as we do not know what RBNZ will say and how the market will react.
I'll update this idea as it develops
This is not investment advice Steve Nixon Trainer & mentor
Did anyone go long? Check out the HUGE spike in the NZD/AUD pair. It's only just started to retrace. Who saw that one coming? Not I that's for sure. Can you please explain what happened Steve?
Glendoonie
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I think it sounds like it's going to be same ol' same old. In Februrary RBNZ dais, "...The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent. We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and 2020. The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down.
Employment is near its maximum sustainable level. However, core consumer price inflation remains below our 2 percent target mid-point, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy."
Blah, blah, blah. OCR has not been released yet.
Don't hold your breath. This IS investment advice :-)
SteveNixon
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@Glendooie, lol No one was expecting anything else from RBNZ and yet we had the spike. The market is crazy. I'm in and staying in because I've been looking for a trend reversal on this pair. This may or may not be the start but surely it's worth a punt. I also caught the NZDUSD so I clawed back some of my losses for this month :)
Glendoonie
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@SteveNixon, They had some expaination on the news (in NZ). SO much for the OCR not changing. EVERYONE knew that. Now they're saying that interests rates will have to rise ... whenever. I am sick of their predictiomns.
However, the RBNZ did note that “on the upside, inflation could rise faster if firms pass on cost increases to prices at a greater extent”. The tone of the statement marks a dramatic escalation in dovishness by the RBNZ which had been keeping a more neutral tone recently. Comments to the likelihood of a rate cut have been effective in pushing NZD lower. Indeed, theycould also prompt a response from other central banks. This new change in policy guidance comes on the back of the RBA shifting its view. Previously, the RBA had forecast that its next move in rates would be higher. However, in light of the recent worsening in global growth, it ... (full story)