There is a smaller channel within the long term channel where the upside has not been completed due to lack of , and looking at the whole channel on almost every time frame, we have declining volumes and while the move went higher, the bulls have ran out of steam and it's time to go back down, this has been confirmed by a cross of the moving averages before the last move up.
So the options are simple, either wait for the breakout to either the upside or downside and take your position, or if you want to go short, the higher risk option, take a position around @1.09350 with your stops above previous structure @1.09500 and target the 50% and 61.8% retracements @1.08200 & @1.07800
Let me know when you have opened your position and where, including your margin percentage and if you have another opinion, I'm love critisicism
The spike from our bullish wedge has not been rejected and formed a rising wedge, this is a reversal pattern and the divergence on 4h could not be clearer.
I have marked my targets and stop.
Simple answer, short term, it's a short.... short term! Look at the RSI on the 15m chart, constantly declining even after the oversold spikes when the bulls attempted to push it higher, and now we're at the key support level below @1.091, which is below the previous point of control at 1.092, if we gap down below that support, we're going down to the next fib level at 1.087
Letting my profits run is how I've grown my account over 800%, and learning when to take some profits too, so if you feel you need to take 50%, do it, less risk and free trades is a thing of beauty in this game.
1. No H&S, wait for the pull-back to retest 1.085 and a possible move down to 1.08 / 1.076.
2. Yes. H&S forming. Take profits now, buy up to the right shoulder and then sell all the way down again, then point 1, post formed H&S.
Tonight we have Aussie building approvals with a forecast of negative news, that would weaken the Aussie further against the Kiwi and therefore potentially, send it back down to the lows. So buying it back up is not an option, we may not reach the high before then.
Remember, how you trade and take profits, is your responsibility and subject to your own rules and targets.
Thanks for following my trades.
The pair have reached 61.8% fib on this move up the channel and have bounced off the moving average and as far as I'm concerned, the next target for the trade is 1.08. There really isn't the volume to support a big bull push this week. But never say never.
Looking at the weighted average, there is no reason why we shouldn't hit the target, there is also no shame in taking your profits now.
Targets zone the 50% fib area: 1.07490 - 260 and then down to 61.8% @1.06710
It's incredibly important you stay patient for an entry, don't enter to just be in the market and if you've got a trade on a long-term, swing trade, be prepared to see larger sideways movements and therefore don't sit and watch them, don't enter with anything less than a 15m timeframe and preferable a 1h.
The Aussie is incredibly strong right now and against the Kiwi, we've hit the edge of the rising channel and will start back-up towards the highs, looking to take a buy position on this pair today.