FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
68 5 1
Looking to short AUD/NZD             after a better than expected retail sales report from New Zealand. The Aussie had rallied qiute hard off the back of Oil             , Gold             and the USD yesturday so I would expect to see those gains dissapate over todays             session. The reversal candlestick pattern gives us confirmation of this reversal taking place just above the 10800 resistance which is now being rejected. Learn to trade fx like a pro http://boafx.com
After the weakness in Oil last week and it falling back below 60$ a barrel and the Y/Y CPI expectations due out for NZD next week I have decided to take this trade afterall. If CPI expectations come in below expected then I will close down as safely as possible
I have cancelled the pending order on this trade after the Dairy forcast has been revised lower overnight which makes up 7% of New Zealands GDP
Hi, not a 100% with you on this analysis. I am not sure that a single data point can ever reverse an established trend. More likely the market will over react and then the trend will continue its upward trajectory. This particular data was a 0.6% increase in retail sales, I have my doubts that such a number will even register with the RBNZ. I can not see any technicals that might support your fundamental view, can you add a technical study?
BOAFX SteveTobin
My trading strategy Is based on Fundamentals - however I do use the Japanese candle stick patterns to pin point reversals in a trend. If you look on the Weekly chart you will see that the current upward move is infact just a pull back on the downward trend. Also the retail sales figure is just a ripple in the pond. The stability report was also less dovish than the market expected so I will be looking at future employment and CPI data for improvement but this recent intraday data and the "evening star" candlestick pattern at a solid area of confluence, 10800, suggests a return to the downside and an opportunity to get in early on the return to the weekly downward trend.
Thanks for that clarification, it is interesting to here different views. I agree that this pair has been in a huge downtrend for more than a year and as always the likelyhood is that the trend will resume however I can see no evidence of that and the more I look at the technicals daily and weekly the more evidenc I see of a change in trend. If the pair manages to clear the current area of resistance a significant movement may be at hand
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