TipTVFinance

AUD/USD bears haven't been crowded out yet

FX_IDC:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
AUD/USD             bottomed out in Jan along with oil             and recovered to 0.7835 levels. The sharp rise from January forced investors consider a possibility that a long term bottom may have been in place.

However, monthly chart tells us, there is still another leg down pending -

  • Head and Shoulder breakout gave us a downside target of 0.6460, but the pair turned higher from 0.6827 (near 2004 low), So the target is yet to be achieved.
  • Plus, plotting waves shows us the fourth wave correction may come to an end around the falling trend line resistance.
  • A rejection/failure to take out the falling trend line would signal the 5th wave lower has begun.
  • As per wave rules, when the third wave is extended, the fifth wave usually matches the first wave in magnitude/duration.
  • So wave 5 can take us down to 0.5668 by late mid-2018 (assuming it begins in next two months). This is because wave 1 led to a drop of 2232 pips during the time period of July 2011 to Aug 2014.

Fundamental also indicate there is still juice left in the bearish view as -

  • China rebalancing is far from done.
  • Oil may have recovered, but base metals (& iron ore) are have little hope unless China rebalances (as that will help fuel export powerhouses across the globe and thus improve demand for metals).
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
France
España
Italia
Polska
Türkiye
Россия
Brasil
Indonesia
Malaysia
ประเทศไทย
Việt Nam
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Priority Support Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out