0.5 level to enter long or short 0.65 level of stoploss to the trade 0.38 level is a level to take some profit off -0.236 1st trade target -0.618 2nd trade target
I go through the fibs left to right.
Fib1 Okay 1st fib on the left, this is just there to show you how I got to the lower anchor of the 2nd fib. Often the first micro wave is skipped when fibs are drawn on bigger charts, The 1st fib shows trades to target and then goes on to trade it's second target.
Fib2 Since price is going down after this first fib, we redraw the fib to the new high this gives us fib 2. If we look at current price, it went through the level a bit and then bounced. In the most recent week we see another touch of the lows but this time exactly at the 50 level of fib 2. This tells me the fib is drawn in the right way with the right lower anchor. The level also makes sense if you are into supply and demand zones read from the candles.
Fib3 is the sideways move that got us down here, it traded to target and beyond.
Fib4 is there because fib3 traded beyond target, we draw a fib extension from the earlier low of the previous fib. This is the fib we are currently in.
Scenarios:
These weekly buy zones are way too big to just buy with a stoploss at the 61 of 65 fib, so best to hop on a micro timeframe move long and hold one or more trades at breakeven down there.
If we trade the current fib extension to target, we also touched the 2nd target of the fib before that completing the sequence, I would give that level a bottom pickers shot. Below that is the S3 level, could also give good support within the buy zone. Now if the current fib extension gets broken next week, I redraw fib 3, high to low, minimum target is that short level at the 50fib. But I see weekly trend as being up, so the target is roughly 1.21 long on fib2.
Pretty insane to see price that way, let's see at the full 50 fib short were this is going, enough pips to grab between here and there. All I am saying is you might want to keep trades that you make down here on the micro timeframe open.
Comments
pcharts
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So now we are exactly running into the fib extension short. A good place to short it, close part of the trade at 38.2% and wait to see if it makes new lows. Nobody can predict price, maybe it works. However if you like my analysis that this might be the bottom you have to wait for a pullback to join the ride up. Will post more charts on audusd in a few minutes.
AncientM
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I am riding up with AUDUSD and expecting TP upto 0.92150 from where there may a pull back before riding again.
justatrader
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Interesting analysis pchart. I've been looking at AUDUSD too from a weekly/monthly perspective. To cut a long story short, i'm expecting audusd to hit to 0.65 level. So my overall outlook is bearish. Weekly charts also points to two bearish wolfe waves. But what's interesting is that the latest bearish wolfe wave is not completely formed, so we're at point 4 and looking for a point 5 (which is a bullish wave). This should potentially end in the region of 0.9087 - 0.9315. A risky long trade would be to enter with a stop at 0.885 (rounded off) or wait until price respects the median line.
pcharts
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AncientM I disagree, the trend is still bearish as it was before, the weekly fib extension short could trade. As I mention in the description you dont trade the whole region. It's more of a buy zone. You give it a few shots against the short setups on a small timeframe using a small stoploss. Look at the previous low swing point on the weekly, compare it to what we are seeing now. Currently we are barely holding the last micro long fib, after this is a double bottom and then the fib extension short to target. No doubt this is counter trend and dangerous, so you have to keep it tight.
AncientM
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I also said above that the trend is bearish and I am in short...and ready to close the trade any time as it is risky.
AncientM
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Price is at the yearly low...bias should be upwards pcharts!
AncientM
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The direction have moved and the overall trend is bearish now...a risky looking trade at this moment!
pcharts
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Thanks for the comments, I don't know if they taper and how much and how it affects price in detail versus other news that is coming out, I just track price action from where we are now.
I am playing the longs from down here until the fib is broken at the 65 level my bias is upward.
trgowermagnificent
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Thanks for the chart. IMO, the future of the AUD/USD depends on the size and pace of the 2013 US Federal Reserve's "taper" program, plus how big of a "stealth QE" Beijing decides to allow for the rest of this year.