ICmarkets

AUD/USD: Technical outlook and review.

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
115 0 0
4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: The weekly timeframe is still depicting consolidating price action with the upper limits being seen at 0.94600 and the lower at 0.92046. The sellers are currently seen pushing price aggressively to the downside within the aforementioned consolidated area.
• Daily timeframe: The medium-term range on the daily timeframe (0.95425-0.94852…0.93208) has seen quite a convincing break to the downside. Price is now relatively free to hit the daily demand area below at 0.92046-0.92354.

We have to be honest here; we expected some selling pressure to be seen, but not quite as much as this! Price has plummeted straight through a 4hr decision-point area at 0.93348-0.93500, and also a 4hr demand area directly below at 0.93208-0.93417. The selling onslaught was met with some buying interest around the round number 0.93 which conveniently spiked back up to the aforementioned 4hr decision-point area which would have made a nice sell! A positive close below the round number has just been seen, price is now relatively free to hit a 4hr decision-point area at 0.92566-0.92736.

It is very likely a retest will be seen of the round number will be seen before we hit the 4hr decision-point area below (levels above). The reason for this is there were no doubt a lot of traders still long around the round number that let greed take over! What we mean by this is, most of the traders were likely filled around this level and price rallied, but it was not too long before prices was back at their entry, then worse, below their entry, and then were possibly forced to cover their positions because they did not take some profit when they had the chance. The point we are trying to make is the stops from these traders are now sell orders, so pro money will likely buy into these sells pushing price up past the round number effectively stopping out the majority of the traders attempting to trade the retest, thus handing over buy orders to pro money (once the traders were stopped out playing the retest, their stops automatically became buys) to sell into down to the 4hr decision-point area (levels above). You have to admire the games played by pro money!

Sorry that was a bit of a mouthful!

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the decision-point area (0.93348-0.93500) at 0.93517 has been stopped out.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the decision point level (0.92566-0.92736) at 0.92775. The reason for placing a P.A confirmation buy order here rather than pending buy order is simply because we were trading just above a daily demand ‘buy zone’ at 0.92046-0.92354, meaning pro money could very well just ignore this level completely and trade deeper into the aforementioned daily demand area, so, confirmation is the order of the day!

• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below supply (0.95425-0.95096) at 0.95052 has been cancelled; price has traded too far south from the entry level for the time being.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.92775 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.
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