AUDUSD - Buy the dip — Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (FX:AUDUSD) / 2015-01-15 — justatrader

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Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (FX:AUDUSD)

FX:AUDUSD Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar

Bullish flag pattern, supported by good jobs report. USD weaker.

Rallied to 127.2% of the measured move, expecting the normal retracement to 100%.

Long from 0.81725 or 0.8173, targeting 0.8245 with stops near the lows of the bullish break out bar.

Related Ideas

about NZDJPY 13

do you believe it will goes up to.8245 only now because some stites showing this
Daily Chart is also bullish but prices will preferably need to climb above 0.915 and ideally above 0.916 in order to demonstrate stronger bullish conviction. This is necessary because broad direction in AUD is bearish and hence it is not unreasonable to seek strong confirmation. Furthermore, we are on edge of a bullish breakout, and if it is really confirmed we could see strong bullish follow-through which will more than compensate for the opportunity cost of buying above the 0.907 resistance.

1trader2015

I can bet my money we won't see 0.90. Weekly charts has a bullish engulfing (last week). And from the same weekly, we have a broken support (untested resistance) at 0.85 - 0.86 level. To achieve 0.86 has to be broken for a confirmation. But once price gets there, RBA will start getting nervous and will talk down the Aussie. Remember, RBA wanted 0.85 in 2014 and just around Nov/Dec Stevens commented that he now wants Aussie 0.75. The RBA is playing it safe by talking down the currency without having to cut interest rates, but if push comes to shove, they will and have room to cut interest rates. Quarterly CPI is due this month end, if the Aussie economy too see's lower inflation growth, then a higher currency (above 0.85) will definitely bring out comments to talk down the currency.

That's is a great piece of news. Thanks

jangseohee

Wow. Looks like you managed to get in at a very nice level. Congrats.

justatrader

ok:) can you suggest me should i buy or sell it will goes up where.8245? then again down right?

1trader2015

I do have a pending buy at 81725 (Good for day). I would leave it alone if price doesn't retrace today. But if price does retrace, then i'd look to closing one trade at the TP mentioned which is 8245 and probably have a second trade moved to break even + some pips and target 845 in the longer term. Since the trade will be risk free + positive overnight swaps, i'd just let the trade set its own course.

1trader2015

Next battle zone would be 0.826 - 0.83, hope you have a method to detect where to buy and sell

justatrader

i do not have the luxury to sit in front of monitor, hence i rely alot on channel to do the job, of course 35% of the time, my channel could betray me :-)
I believe even at 0.80005, i still got hurt first by the falling axe before recover big time..

justatrader

that was almost 29 days ago when i share it

jangseohee

ok many thanks i think at the point.8240 it is time to sell? right
i must wait right?i am not experienced like you so asking you

1trader2015

Selling from 824 would be counter trend. Unless you are very familiar and confident with candlestick patterns, it would be a case for disaster. Rather waiting for longs patiently for a dip to the entry would be a safer play. For all we know price could just rally straight up.

justatrader

my emotional indicator will tell me the counter trend
when price flies away "too far" from 8ema - this is qualitative though and it is very dangerous game :-)
i wont encourage you to do this, better to wait for divergence

Hooolyyyy Fig tree!!! Glad there are no positions in the Swissy. Dollar index is weak

justatrader

Aud usd goes down

1trader2015

do yo think it will goes down to.8212

1trader2015

sorry..812

1trader2015

until there is a bearish divergence on daily chart, i will just hold at least until 0.83xxx

1trader2015

just knee jerk reaction, don get freak out, if you are already on profit, use trailing stop :-)

justatrader

10 days ago, one of my review on EURCHF, and Swiss National Bank decided that the price should continue with accelerated red channel :-)
Not need to care why, how, when, what they wanna do.

Follow Up:

1. Move stops to the low created by the spike, maintaining the target
2. Move stops to break even and raise target to 0.84
or
3. Just let the trade be as it is and get a good night's sleep

The end!! :)

justatrader

i told ya before, 0.83 first, and then when price flies away from 8ema too far, just short it for scalp!

whenever the channel is valid, big rewards awaits

jangseohee

jangseohee, Channels form an integral part of my analysis, especially in finding Support/Resistance and potential retracements. I looked at your EURCHF chart, but noticed that the way you use them is a bit different to how I use them. Maybe we should exchange our methods.

Great one, an inverse head and shoulders as well

Technician

Thanks. Missed spotting the H&S, else it would have been a very nice confluence, adding some extra weight. Alls well that ends well I guess.

justatrader

It feels good when things end well :)

Technician

it would have been even more fabulous when things don end well, because it was through this mistakes that i am on marvelous steps to improvement and become sharper :P
It took me one year (6 hour/day) to draw and find channels with lots of mistakes :-)

Technician

Especially on a day like today!! Just glad i wasn't short on any CHF pairs and neither long on the Buck. Expecting some fireworks from the US in response to the SNB news.

justatrader

Oh my ... Never seen such move in my life, Thousands of pips in a matter of minutes

Technician

i am expecting another ground breaking movement on 22nd based on Draghi's action or inaction

justatrader

reward yourself with fine dining at the end of a cold day :-)

took one lot profit first, sounds like a DOJI for this week, rejection by 8ema

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