Short Aussie based on fundamentals $AUS $USD #forex Short

Australian Dollar/U.S. DollarFXCM

Description

⋅ May 24, 2015 12:09 PM

Economies worldwide slowing down or missed their forecast. Why? There are different explanations. Today, I do a quick analysis of AUDUSD and how I trade it.

As you may or may not know Australia (atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/) and Brazil (atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/hs/2601/) together dominate the world's iron ore exports.
Iron ore is the basic source for iron and steel industries. It is essential for the production of steel.
Prices for Commodities like Iron Ore (indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=120) decreased dramatically in the last months. Also Commodity Metals Price Index decreased (Copper, Aluminum, Iron Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, and Uranium Price Indices) indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=metals-price-index&months=120
That's why IMHO e.g. AUDUSD goes downwards and USDCAD upwards. Canada's currency is dependent on their oil production and the oil price goes south.

USD (US Dollar)aussiedollar

Comments

Simon1

⋅ May 25, 2015 3:32 PM

Agree with the general analysis. However, can you give more details on the proposed trade? SL, TP? As it is diagrammed on the chart I would say the risk/reward is to high for me (to much risk).
Also, on the fundamental side, can we be reasonably certain that commodities have not bottom out in price? Oil seems to be rebounding ...

piptank

⋅ May 26, 2015 8:17 AM

Hi Simon,
1. oil price is a political weapon for many countries you can never be sure it is bottom out or not that why oil trading is so difficult imho
2. I trade daily charts thats why my SL, TP are a bit bigger. Your risk and reward can be different, no question about it. I think a SL around 0.807 and TP 0.76 is great, too