AUD has managed to sail through a 25bp rate cut, a cut to the RBA forecast for both GDP and CPI for 2016 and a set of minutes that confirms a 'soft easing bias. Indeed over that period, the AUD has been able to hit a close to 4 month high. We put that down to a number of factors including market positioning; the bounce in iron ore; lack of guidance from the RBA and the aggressive sell off in Australian yields; the budget being well received by traders and economists.
These are all factors that could continue to support the A$ and it looks like we could remain in a 0.7950 to 0.8200 range for the next week or so. This range may yet extend up to the Jan highs at 0.8295, but beyond that we see increasingly expensive as the terms of trade continues to fall - thus we see AUD rolling over into mid-year and beyond.
Price traded within 100 points of our interim target last week and short term momentum failed. This is worthy of a short term correction but not trend change. Above 0.7788 the uptrend remains in play. Target 0.8250/00”.
These are all factors that could continue to support the A$ and it looks like we could remain in a 0.7950 to 0.8200 range for the next week or so. This range may yet extend up to the Jan highs at 0.8295, but beyond that we see increasingly expensive as the terms of trade continues to fall - thus we see AUD rolling over into mid-year and beyond.
Price traded within 100 points of our interim target last week and short term momentum failed. This is worthy of a short term correction but not trend change. Above 0.7788 the uptrend remains in play. Target 0.8250/00”.