$AUDUSD - #NFP weakness + RBA Rate Hold = Possible Rally?
Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans is pretty bluint with what he expects from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday:
There is little chance that the Board will decide to change rates
And, looking ahead
Markets are giving a less than 10% probability to a move in October rising to a 25% probability by November and 50% by December
That pricing compares with market pricing, back in late August, of a 100% probability of a December move. The 100% probability has now been pushed back to February next year with a 40% probability of a second cut by June
Those daunting probabilities contrast with our current view that rates will remain on hold over the course of 2016.
Evans continues (this is in brief):
The view that rates will remain on hold is heavily dependent on some stability in the global growth outlook
We are predicting a more stable global environment in 2016 ... some of the gloom around China lifting, particularly as the authorities continue to roll out stimulus
These are particularly uncertain times. If we were to significantly change our global view we would certainly be more comfortable with the market's expectation of 1.5-2 rate cuts next year in the six months to June.
Source : forexlive.com
There is little chance that the Board will decide to change rates
And, looking ahead
Markets are giving a less than 10% probability to a move in October rising to a 25% probability by November and 50% by December
That pricing compares with market pricing, back in late August, of a 100% probability of a December move. The 100% probability has now been pushed back to February next year with a 40% probability of a second cut by June
Those daunting probabilities contrast with our current view that rates will remain on hold over the course of 2016.
Evans continues (this is in brief):
The view that rates will remain on hold is heavily dependent on some stability in the global growth outlook
We are predicting a more stable global environment in 2016 ... some of the gloom around China lifting, particularly as the authorities continue to roll out stimulus
These are particularly uncertain times. If we were to significantly change our global view we would certainly be more comfortable with the market's expectation of 1.5-2 rate cuts next year in the six months to June.
Source : forexlive.com