justatrader
Short

RBA Minutes - Neutral, sprinkled with dovishness

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
317 2 4
So, price rallied, tripped the stop loss orders at 0.93157 and retreated. The RBA minutes are a lot more easier to read/understand. While 3/4th's of the minutes is just the usual crap, the last 2 paras was where the Golden egg was.

"Aussie still high by historical standards"

1. Its funny how traders ignore the very obvious. Last year someone from RBA commented 0.8 is the more comfy level for AUDUSD             , but Aussie failed to drop lower. 0.95 and above makes RBA very uncomfy.

2. Markets are fickle. US NFP was bullish on face value, but declining participation rate paints a diff. picture. Logically we'd assume USD to lose value. It did but markets seem to be ignoring that for now.

3. Price moves in support/resistance levels. After hitting 0.94, price was literally hovering around with no support. It found minor resistance at 0.93 and now looking to find support, which obviously sits in at 0.915 - 0.912 region.

4. May 8th the all important Aussie labour data will be released. Regardless of the outcome Aussie has to find support if it wants to push higher.

Suggestions:

Short but move to BE by EOD             today.. or near today's high.
Set pending buy orders around 0.912 - 0.915 region targeting 0.95, 0.96.

EURAUD             , the other chart i'm monitoring has not retraced to prior support to find resistance. So it justifies the Aussie shorts.

P.S: Look to any Aussie pairs, AUDCHF             for example and price rallied without finding proper support.

EDIT: Forgot to put in the linked chart:
AUDUSD - Post NFP, continue to hold shorts
(Post NFP analysis)
Professional market analyst with a keen interest on futures. Love keeping an eye on the markets. Currencies, bonds, commodities. Combining technical analysis and the fundamentals. Contact me for more details.

Related Ideas

ForceFollower
2 years ago
I've closed my long position at the 61.8% retracement. I've been waiting for it for three weeks... I'm done with this pair. Ended up at BE.
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justatrader PRO ForceFollower
2 years ago
Yea, its been one frustrating pair actually.. I'm watching for 61.8% retracement on the H4 leg down (before this stupid bullish rally took over). I think its around 0.93679 on my charts. Anything higher and i'm closing off my shorts as well.
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