aluotradingjournal

[AUDUSD Short] 27 Jan, 2021 - Roger V Trading Ideas

Short
FOREXCOM:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
AUDUSD Trading idea comment:

The previous AUDUSD trading idea provided on the 12th of November 2020 was expired after the breakout of the final SL resistance level of 0.736000.

The direction changed from bearish to bullish after the breakout.

Market during the first half of January in 2021 was very quiet and did not fluctuate much for most pairs.

However, I was looking around at the market on the 10th of Jan 2021 and saw some price action signal with the US Dollar index forming an earlier stage of reversal to a bullish direction.

In relation to this matter, AUDUSD is one of the major pairs that correlate with US Dollar Index .

If US dollar goes strong in its value, inversely AUDUSD goes in a bearish direction. Vice versa with US Dollar index going weak against with AUDUSD .

It took me 17 days from 10th January 2021 to 27th January 2021, to make a decision that AUDUSD can be one of the selected pairs in the list to go for its trading opportunity.

AUDUSD has been in a consolidation of its high and low between 0.769000 to 0.782000 (Still currently on-going with the consolidation.)


What is the reason to finally decided to trade AUDUSD?

It was a tough decision this morning to decide AUDUSD to confirm to have it be a part of the selected trading pairs.



Main factors I see that made my decision for AUDUSD:
1. Price Action
a. Upper shadow high for each candle is lowering each week, and no new highs is breaking up the highest one .
AUDUSD Weekly Chart


a. Descending Triangle pattern channeling
i. It is quite similar to the price action. However, the difference between descending triangle is that, it looks at the breakout of the triangle. If it breaks upwards, it means that the trend will go in a bullish . Vice versa, if breaks downwards then it will go in a bearish trend .

AUDUSD Daily Chart


3. US Dollar Index volatility strength
a. An in depth/ update about the US Dollar index is written in the follow articles
i. 12 Jan 2021 - US Dollar Index (Read more)
ii. 21 Jan 2021 - US Dollar Index (Read more)



Extra Notes:

Taking note that AUDUSD previous effective high happened in July 2017 going pass 0.78XXXX. (Please refer to the image below to see the chart.)



The high gone over 0.78XXX in 2021 is considered the only effective high comparing with the past 3 years.

When new highs are created, to be more conservative it is best to wait for more signals on the higher time frame until it gets more stable and then start after that to have a higher possible winning accuracy for the pair.



Right now, this trading idea is announced. Roger V will put this pair in list to try for its trading opportunity for AUDUSD .


Worst Case Scenario:

Two options:

1. Can wait or ask Roger V on Roger V Diamond Club, to see if the trend is actually true breakout or false break.
a. If true breakout - try to find a lower loss to stop loss.
b. If false breakout - hold it, and carefully look at the weakening signal from M15 to H4. (Same method as looking at the weakening signal candlestick combination taught in group.)
2. Can stop loss straight away at the final SL, if the loss amount has gone over your expectation. (This is to be known before you make any orders.)

Best Case Scenario:

Trend does not breakout final SL of 0.867000 support level .

Once reach target 1 0.895000 and gets resisted and goes in a retracement. Re-entries for long position will be available among the new re-entry trading idea.

--------------------
(Note: The forecast above is an estimation of the resistance/ support level for the entry, TP, and SL. For more precise positions will depend on the shape formed with the candlestick at the time.)

--------------------
Disclaimer: ALuoTradingJournal does not provide any personal advice or general advice. This is only a journal to keep ALuo in noting the trades and what the market is going on as a trading journal. ALuo will not take any responsibility for any profits or losses. Please trade at your own risk.

Comments

Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Referred friends Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Private Messages Chat Sign Out