Feds are not preparing to raise rates anytime soon, and Yellen dismisses higher inflation. lower volatility in the market as a whole benefits Aussie. China's premier strongly commented that they will hit their growth target this year, that helps aussie... copper and gold are rising... that helps aussie.
The risk to this trade is the conflict in Iraq and its affect on risk sentiment. Broadening escalation could see oil higher, which may begin hurting risk sentiment as the global growth outlook on higher oil comes under question. Also Iron ore prices have fallen dramatically over the last quarter. This was highlighted in the RBA's last interest rate statement which sent aussie tumbling. If this continues to fall, the market may begin to question the Aussie at these price levels and we could see another test of the 0.9220 support.
price action shows strong resistance around the .9420 level. The next test should see it break through, whereupon it should have a relatively easy ride to .9500.
Watch the China PMI due sunday, likely will be an aussie positive event. If it comes in higher then 50 then aussie bulls will commit to a continuation of the rally. Not much data out of australia next week, but quite a few US data releases. As Yellen just spoke last week and seemed content with the status quo, I doubt any of the events will dramatically alter USD positions. USD should be mildy weaker next weak.
The risk to this trade is the conflict in Iraq and its affect on risk sentiment. Broadening escalation could see oil higher, which may begin hurting risk sentiment as the global growth outlook on higher oil comes under question. Also Iron ore prices have fallen dramatically over the last quarter. This was highlighted in the RBA's last interest rate statement which sent aussie tumbling. If this continues to fall, the market may begin to question the Aussie at these price levels and we could see another test of the 0.9220 support.
price action shows strong resistance around the .9420 level. The next test should see it break through, whereupon it should have a relatively easy ride to .9500.
Watch the China PMI due sunday, likely will be an aussie positive event. If it comes in higher then 50 then aussie bulls will commit to a continuation of the rally. Not much data out of australia next week, but quite a few US data releases. As Yellen just spoke last week and seemed content with the status quo, I doubt any of the events will dramatically alter USD positions. USD should be mildy weaker next weak.