Techs Calling Top; Funds Expect Reversal | $AUD $USD #RBA #forex

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

The Aussie steamrolled over a potential counter-trend idea and marched on to loftier levels, which are now challenging significant technical patterns. In addition to predictive analysis and forecasting data calling for a reversal within the potential reversal zone (PRZ) range defined by technical data alone, a fundamental element is likely to come into play in that vicinity as well.


First, let's define some of the points in the charts:

1 - Shark pattern, defined by its unusual Zero-X-A-B-C points, where Point-C remains pending
- Shark is expected to complete at C = 0.96501
- Shark is a pre-pattern (pattern precursor) to its 5-0 Pattern acolyte

2 - A bifid Head & Shoulder, defined by two distinct shoulders and necklines
- First set of shoulders (S1) project a symmetry (h1) at 0.96436
- Second set of shoulders (S2) project a symmetry (h2) at 0.95003

3 - A 5-0 pattern aiming at a return to its Point-D, which remains HIGHLY speculative
- The 5-0 pattern is a finding of Scott Carney, worth studying on his http://www.harmonictrading.com site
- While a Shark can complete at 0.886 x 0A or 1.131 x 0A, expect a minimum retracement of 50%, hence defining the five-zero of the 5-0 pattern.


A retracement to a supportive 0.92682/0.93013 range is anticipated from the recent impulse. A break and close below 0.92266 should concern vested bulls. Otherwise, directional bias remains bullish and sees a probable continuation into the PRZ defined above, favoring TG-1 = 0.96121 as a probable target.


RBA opted last month to keep rate unchanged, although noting that a recent rallying of the currency might temporarily impact the anticipated economic recovery. Indeed, recent improvements in core economic data has pushed the pair of this export-dependent continent to increasingly higher levels. So, expect the RBA to provide verbal hints that could help counter the current appreciation of the Aussie. However, before any verbal intervention turned into monetary policy action, several months are likely to go, as long as the rate remains distanced from the 0.9500 water mark.


With all of its pattern tools out of the box, technical analysis is coming out screaming and banging at price, as it nears a narrowly-defined PRZ. A layered analysis/forecasting with my own prop system falls within this narrow PRZ, so there is little left for loftier delusions at this point.

Also, Stevens of RBA let the pair rise against a non-intervention stance, risking a near-term squeeze to higher AUD levels. But now that the positive domestic data is getting absorbed, a little RBA jawboning might suffice to keep bulls at bay. I expect this to occur within the range defined by the technical data above.

Directional bias is LONG, but I will keep the indicator at "NEUTRAL" to emphasize a nearing of significant technical levels. It will take an early market reversal sign, then a bearish market reversal signal to change it to SHORT. That will take a bit of time.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting

Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter:
(Alias: @4xForecaster)

- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
05 JAN 2015 - Update/Closure:

Just to revisit an older chart and closing the analysis. Looks like this one rose to the first geometric projection, but fell short of the predictive target - Not too shabby:

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
15 MAY 2014 - Chart Update:

Not much price action going on, considering the sideways move against our initial upwards expectation.

Question is:

- Are we now dealing with a EW truncated Wave-5?

I'll let the EW experts sort things out AFTER a decisive price action.


David Alcindor
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
(In my opinion, I believe that we are witnessing a probable Wave-4 in the making - Time will tell)
- David Alcindor
Re: AUDUSD - Lesson: A Little Curious Glimpse At Why Forex In But A Little Dingy Boat
- Sunday, 13 APR 2014 - Added commentary:


The question at hand here is whether the chart is reversing or not, and if so, at what level would this presumed reversal happen.

I won't add any more technical data to what I have posted before, but I want to emphasize that sometimes, looking at the chart of the currency pair may in fact blind us to other more ubiquitous elements that may contribute to such thing as a reversal, even when the chart itself remains mute of any such approaching possibility.

What I mean here is that the trader should not limit himself to the chart alone. In the mindset that all markets are inter-connected, on has to consider that intermarket analysis does not have to be an injurious enterprise, however fancy it might sound.

In the case of the $AUDUSD, one has to be aware of the following (and this are very dumbed-down, hyper-simplified examples):

1 - AUDUSD's sovereign economy is dependent on:
a - Gold production and export: A new and significant discovery of gold is likely to decrease AUD is it would make this rare metal "a bit rarer"
b - The import capability and consumer demand of AUD's products: Any decline in China's economy would impact AUD negatively
c - Export cost: Increase in oil will increase both production and transportation, because it costs to run manufacture of goods (and gold exploration/extraction)


2 - AUDUSD rate will depend on:
a - Its central bank (RBA) rate which is based mainly on its 2-3% inflation mandate, and employment at a lesser level. Too good an economy will increase employment, which would increase demand for more good, and drive price higher (inflation). In this case, a containment of consumer demand is done by making loans more expensive by increasing the base interest rate. Conversely, if the consumers are too sluggish, decreasing the cost of borrowing will make it a bit less painful for consumers to borrow for the things they would otherwise decided not to purchase against a loan.
b - Its relative percentage relative to the USD (currently near ZERO). If the USD's central bank rate is lower than that of the RBA, investors will sell the USD against another currency. Here, an investor would look at AUDUSD and buy AUD, which is the same as selling USD. Of late, the Fed (US central bank) is expected to increase the interest rate from its near-zero baseline. Expect a rise in the USD, as investors would start selling USD crosses where the cross-currency has a lesser central-bank defined rate.

and finally:

3 - AUDUSD rate depends on correlations in the value of other assets, especially:
a - XAUUSD: here, a positive news in gold would bring XAUUSD up. This would mean that the financial market would sell the USD dollar. A selling wave of the USD will ripple across the markets (inter-market analysis is getting cool or what?), and one should expect AUDUSD's own USD to sell as well, thus pushing the AUDUSD up.
b - Forex pairs correlation, such as USDCAD: A Bullish CAD news (increase in rate, improved export especially in oil to the US, or a positive news in Gold, since it's also a major producer and exported of the precious metal) would cause investors to buy CAD. Because the pair is countered by USD, this would cause investors to sell USD, this pushing AUDUSD to rise as well.

I hope this gives the junior trader a bit of an insight when trading Forex. Just as in medicine, where the total physiology of the body will cause one disease to manifest itself in various parts of the person (hence the reference of syndromes), the Forex market is only one organ intimately connected to bonds, stocks, central bank decisions and geopolitical events.

Instead of rowing your dingo boat in the world-wide ocean, wouldn't it be nice to know where the prevailing winds are, and where the currents come from? Otherwise, what's the points of even rowing if you do not even know where you are, where you go, and what you are even rowing against.


David Alcindor
ForceFollower 4xForecaster
A very comprehensive footnote indeed. :-)
Why have you included a disclaimer? Should every other user do so? As a regular tradingview user, I thought we were safe publishing our charts with no need for one. I thought it was clear these charts are only for educational purposes, not a financial advice per se. However, you, as a moderator of this service, are regarded as a model, an exemplar to be followed, so your disclaimer made me think, whether I (as well as all the other users) should include one as well...
4xForecaster ForceFollower
Hello @ForceFollwer - It's not a bad idea to include a disclaimer. Charts and commentaries travel far outside and long after they are published. A lot of the analysis can appear formal enough as to lose its primary educational tone and intent while the prospective trader who comes in with his/her own set of circumstance may take it otherwise.

In such a litigious society where responsibility has become a hot potato left for others to assume, a few clarifying words are worth reminding the junior traders that:

1 - The act out of their own responsibilities and understanding;
2 - Trading is an exciting learning venture for those who survive the lessons;
3 - The field of trading is littered with financially bloodied up, ego bruised traders climbing Hamburger Hill from a tactically disadvantaged position, specifically because of the way institutional traders have leveled the trading fields.

ForceFollower 4xForecaster
Thanks for the advice. However, I thought the disclaimers included on this site https://www.tradingview.com/policies/ were enough for all of us. Aren't they all-encompassing, regarding all the trade ideas published on tradingview?

In particular, I thought this sentence was protecting all the users against any litigations: "Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our Services." But, I'm afraid, this seems to be protecting only the owners of tv, not the community members...
4xForecaster ForceFollower
@ForceFollower - I was referring to my own charts and its comments, which are products that can be cut/pasted, taken outside of TV, travel any electronic distance and find its way in the hands of a trader who might misinterpret the educational intent of the analyses.

A cautionary word, regardless of the disclaimer that cloaks the original site, offers a good measure of awareness when the words travel outside their original nest.

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