ICmarkets

AUD/USD: Technical outlook and review.

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
152 0 0
Weekly Timeframe: The USD continues to hammer the AUD deeper into the major weekly demand area seen at 0.80646-0.84601. A break below this area may promote further selling down towards a weekly demand area coming in at 0.76999-0.79740.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe currently shows that price is trading deep within a daily demand area at 0.80809-0.82270 (located deep within the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.80646-0.84601). A break below here would likely clear the path south down towards a daily Quasimodo support area seen at 0.76999-0.78349 (located deep within the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.76999-0.79740).

4hr Timeframe: In our last report, we mentioned that if price closed below 0.82, we would be looking to short a confirmed retest down to 0.81. As we can all see, a close lower was indeed seen; we however missed the opportunity to sell at around 3pm GMT time yesterday on the inverted pin-bar candle. Taking this trade would have likely caused a loss for us, as the market only offered 20 pips or so, before it turned north. Following a short up burst of buying, price then aggressively sold off to our target area – 0.81.

We know from the higher timeframe analysis that the overall bias for the Aussie is south at the moment. The only way in which we would consider buying this pair now would be if price were to break above the high circled in red at 0.82354, as the path north would then likely be clear up to at least 0.83. The reason being is simply because we believe there to be consumed supply to the left marked with a pink trend line – check out the supply consumption wicks at: 0.82354/0.82734. That being said though, there may be a chance to enter long around the 0.81 area, if one sees exceedingly good confirmation on the lower timeframes. However, this trade should only be considered a bounce/scalp until proven otherwise.

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: Watching the lower-timeframes for confirmed long entries around 0.81 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on where one confirms the level).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).


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