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Alexander_Nikitin
Apr 2, 2019 3:55 AM

AUDUSD. UG probabilities. Short

Australian Dollar/U.S. DollarFXCM

Description

A unified gartley is completed on AUDUSD 30M. The swing identification algorithm is prex(12).

Historically, on this pair and this timeframe (30M), the pattern with this swing identification and with these ratios (B-point is 0.547 and C-point is 0.919) has a higher probability for a continuation (down till 1.05XA) rather than for a reversal (same distance in opposite direction (up till 0.522). The exact probability numbers are 46.67% for a reversal and 53.33% for a continuation.

My personal approach is to trade this setup as a continuation. Sell order was executed at 0.786XA. Here 1.05XA is the stoploss and 0.522XA is the takeprofit.

This is not a trade recommendation for you. Don't trade this pattern if you didn't do the backtest of the strategy. This is simply a demonstration of my approach. Check the related educational ideas below this post to learn more about how I chose the direction of trading.

Comment

correction: Here 1.05XA is takeprofit and 0.522 is stoploss.

Trade closed: target reached

Comments
rsam
Hi, sorry if I'm not getting it - you say " Sell order was executed at 0.786XA. Here 1.05XA is the stoploss and 0.522XA is the takeprofit." - and looking at chart 1.05XA/0.522XA values are 0.70727/0.71024 (SL/TP) so that looks like a Buy to me?
Alexander_Nikitin
@rsam, It is a sell, of course. I made a mistypo. correction: Here 1.05XA is takeprofit and 0.522 is stoploss. Anyways, you should stay away from this trade, because you don't get what is going on here:)
rsam
@Alexander_Nikitin, thanks. Definitely not getting it, just trying to learn :-) Thank you.
Alexander_Nikitin
@rsam, check the related ideas. the links are below description.
rsam
Will do, thank you.
noficoul53
nice
Alexander_Nikitin
@noficoul53, thank you
FXCM
Great idea, I have the same bearish view on AUDUSD let me know how you think
Alexander_Nikitin
@FXCM-EDU, think it needs some power to break this support.
mofrisesh
thank you.
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