DanV
Short

AUDUSD - INTERMEDIATE TERM POTENTIAL SHORT

FX_IDC:AUDUSD   AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR
AUDUSD             is still in longer term downtrend.

In the last short term chart we were successful in taking short which didn't reach the 1st target level but came close.

However, since then, it has bounced strongly in abc zigzag in what appears to be wave 4 retracement. The today's gap up open could set the scene for excellent short entry with tight stoploss.

Downside target could be at least retest of the last low or lower still with:
1. Price back into resistance zone and in the vicinity of iv of one lower degree typical for wave 4.
2. RSI appears to be setting up equal or higher high and price lower high, hence hidden negative divergence.
3. The 1st Target level still remains to be 0.7450 area
4. 2nd Target 0.7250 -0.7150

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, constructive comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
mkdeep04
2 years ago
yes dan.. i am riding
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DanV MOD mkdeep04
2 years ago
Excellent. Thanks.

Anticipating this to be nice trade.
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Isn't that V wave too small?
I read it more like an expanding triangle fourth after iii.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Well, if you compare it with the wave 2 then is looks proportional I think. Also for expanding diagonal I think you need each cycle of abc zigzag, ie if it is to be 3-3-3-3-3. I don't see that as marked on my chart below on H4, some are 5 wave impulse others abc zizgag. Hence my interpretation as published chart

You could be right though. Will have to see. how it develops.
snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO DanV
2 years ago
Indeed, I'm between expanded flat and expanding diagonal as suggested.
When things aren't 100% clear, I prefer to wait for more development before tossing labels in there.
We might see a new move up from here if this is an expanded flat or an expanding diagonal, so result is pretty much the same.
Wait for confirmation to short... :)
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes I could agree with that.

Confirmation can help avoid false move or help clarify the pattern as you suggest. Good point.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I see. In that case it seem you might have wave ii retracement high of 5, so a wave iii could commence soon that too os a possibility. Thanks for your chart.
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BoonOng
2 years ago
Nice analysis you have there.
I am waiting for it to head down almost near your Target 1. =)
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DanV MOD BoonOng
2 years ago
Excellent, that is nice to hear. Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it,.
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hi danv
snapshot
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DanV MOD manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
Thanks for your chart and one can never say never. So I agree it could form that kind of megaphone or expanding diagonal but not sure it could as per my comments above and H4 chart showing some of the swings are zigzags and other 5 wave impulse as they at at present.

However, if that changes then some other alternative could develop along the line you are suggesting.

So I will for this with interest. For now I am short with stop at break even.

Thanks for sharing.
+1 Reply
Sam0101 DanV
2 years ago
hey dan, where have you shorted eu ?
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Sam0101 Sam0101
2 years ago
AU, sry
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DanV MOD Sam0101
2 years ago
At 0.7835 on Friday. So if I get stopped out will review and attempt again.
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Sam0101 DanV
2 years ago
Hey Dan wheres your target for this drop ?
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DanV MOD Sam0101
2 years ago
As shown on the chart and explained in the text, 1st target is retest of the last low 0.7450 -0.75. This assuming the interpretation is correct but then once entered stop placement would have to be in place to ensure profitable trade do not turn into losing trade.

In addition the usual Money Management in terms of position sizing etc should be kept in mind. Hope this helps.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
AUDUSD: Update

He raises valid apoints, about it not being an expanding triangle, it's really possible it's not.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks for that, I appreciate it,
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
UPDATE: Since publishing the above chart we did have couple of minor short trades but not the one we are looking for. Subsequent price action suggest that we are now getting close to possible short zone which could happen today if RBA cuts interest rate as hinted by one of the representative recently. Here is the chart update with more clarified entry zone, rest remains the same as per main chart above.
snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO DanV
2 years ago
Interesting, was looking at that possibility as well.
If it validates your count we're in for a great trade.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes indeed. we have had sort of false triggers with small profit. But this is the one I will be eager to take with couple of small limit orders layered in that zone and add the final one on confirmation.
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IvanLabrie PRO DanV
2 years ago
Good idea.
Saw nzdusd?
It's a more complex count but it looks to be on the same page.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes I was just reviewing that and it too is forming ending diagonal. Here is the chart
snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO DanV
2 years ago
Yes, I see the exact same thing.

Also:

Gold
snapshot


Copper
snapshot


I suspect it'll start moving back down in one day, and fail to produce new highs.
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DanV MOD DanV
2 years ago
Scratch that, Here is undated chart published
NZDUSD - FACES FURTHER WEAKNESS AHEAD - UPDATE
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IvanLabrie PRO DanV
2 years ago
Great!
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks.
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SunnyBTC PRO
2 years ago
Awesome stuff Dan. Caught a 0.7890 entry on AUDUSD. Fingers crossed for 7465 tgt 1
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DanV MOD SunnyBTC
2 years ago
Excellent. Let see if we get follow though on the anticipated move.
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SunnyBTC PRO DanV
2 years ago
Btw. SignalSuisse posted this on his chart earlier today... "RBA rate cut expectations continue to get pared back: The probability of easing at next week’s meeting is now at 50%, down from 80% a fortnight ago. Although Gov. Stevens stated that a rate cut ‘will be on the table’ (for discussion) at the May policy meeting (and he speaks again tonight), it seems that a better-than-expected March employment report and a sturdy Q1 CPI print weighed on expectations."
AUDUSD: Target Area!
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DanV MOD SunnyBTC
2 years ago
Nice.
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Pansyfaust
2 years ago
Looks like it overshot the mark slightly, shorted at 0.7905, so let's see if it runs out of puff up here :)
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minbari PRO Pansyfaust
2 years ago
There are a lot of shorts to eat before this runs out
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SunnyBTC PRO minbari
2 years ago
4hr RSI is in the ceiling
snapshot
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SunnyBTC PRO SunnyBTC
2 years ago
i've got a wave C target which coincides well with this upper red trendline. Also happens to be huge amount of hidden bearaish divergence on the 4hr macd. I'm looking to short around 1.0980 a 1.0990 if this 1.0950 level doesn't hold
EURUSD Hidden Bearish divergence on 12hr
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DanV MOD SunnyBTC
2 years ago
Yes, could really play out though for now time to keep strict control on risk management. Thanks for your chart.
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SunnyBTC PRO SunnyBTC
2 years ago
sorry this is EURUSD, wrong post
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Pansyfaust minbari
2 years ago
Looks like it. Oh well. Have my stops, let's see if it plays nice :)
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DanV MOD minbari
2 years ago
I agree.
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DanV MOD Pansyfaust
2 years ago
Yes, I have noticed. However, it might be worth keeping an eye. If necessary might need a re-attempt for entry.
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Pansyfaust
2 years ago
And stopped out. Oh well
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DanV MOD Pansyfaust
2 years ago
It has suddenly exploded to the upside and I thing it must be stops run. I exited early with small loss ans have just re-entered on this spike will see how this plays out.
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SunnyBTC PRO DanV
2 years ago
snapshot
I think you may be right about stop runs.... we just pinged the typical wave C target and top of trendline.... could be done. I missed this move too
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DanV MOD SunnyBTC
2 years ago
No Worries. Looks good with my earlier updated chart this morning.
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Pansyfaust DanV
2 years ago
Looks like a good play actually, tagged the top of the Daily RSI trendline

snapshot
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Pansyfaust
2 years ago
New highs. How much more short can we get XD
+1 Reply
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